RBA

The OPEC+ cut of 1.16 million barrels a day pushed world oil prices up 8% in electronic trading on the world's major oil trading platforms at one stage before ...

Australian economists and markets are mixed on the idea of a rate rise or no move from today’s monetary policy meeting. But while prices did rise, they slumped to $US65 a barrel in mid-March as the global banking fright took root. That can take two to three months – longer for Russian crude. Yesterday’s building approvals and housing finance data for February won’t have any influence today except to confirm that the sector remains weak. On the face of it, there’s a case for another 0.25% increase because labour markets remain tight. The 3.6-billion-barrel cut is the largest since the pandemic in 2020 and will end up signalling the extent of OPEC’s fears about demand.

If you're looking at the economic calendar for tomorrow, you might notice some will show that the "expected" RBA decision is to hike the cash rate by 25 bps ...

If we do see a "surprise" 25 bps rate hike, it will likely lead to a decent rally or at least modest upside in the aussie upon the initial reaction. Well, recent data certainly does make a case for that but will policymakers be bold enough to really pull the trigger? That does not indicate any overwhelming consensus and the split among major local banks also highlight how tricky of a decision this one is.

The Australian dollar has edged higher at the start of the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6715, up 0.45%. The RBA meets on Tuesday ...

Visit [https://www.marketpulse.com/](https://www.marketpulse.com/) to find out more about the beat of the global markets. The RBA is widely expected to stay on the sidelines, with the market pricing in a pause at 86%. Governor Lowe has said that in addition to inflation, employment and consumer spending data would play a key factor in the RBA’s decision. Inflation is more than triple the RBA target, but the sharp rise in rates has dampened economic activity and further hikes could jeopardize a soft landing. The US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to record another decline. The RBA meets on Tuesday (Australia time) and is expected to pause rates.

Forex Analysis by MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher) covering: AUD/USD, Australian Dollar Futures, AUD/USD Future, COMMERZBANK AG Call 0.5758 AUD/USD 31Dec99.

The EUR/USD is Always In Long and will probably surpass the March 23rd high in the next day or two. The RBA is widely expected to stay on the sidelines, with the market pricing in a pause at 86%. We’re seeing a decline in manufacturing across the globe as demand remains weak. EURUSD had been steadily gaining ground since finding its feet at the March low of 1.0515. [ISM Manufacturing PMI](/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-pmi-173) has declined for four straight months, with readings below the 50 thresholds, separating expansion from contraction. Governor Lowe has said that in addition to inflation, employment, and consumer spending data would play a key factor in the RBA’s decision. The weak retail sales data supports the RBA taking a breather. The banking crisis, which roiled global financial markets, raised fears of a financial meltdown. Inflation is more than triple the RBA target, but the sharp rise in rates has dampened economic activity, and further hikes could jeopardize a soft landing. The RBA has aggressively tightened interest rates in the current cycle, raising rates ten straight times. The US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to record another decline. In the European session,

The Australian dollar has edged higher at the start of the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6715, up 0.45%. The RBA meets on Tuesday ...

Visit [https://www.marketpulse.com/](https://www.marketpulse.com/) to find out more about the beat of the global markets. The RBA is widely expected to stay on the sidelines, with the market pricing in a pause at 86%. Governor Lowe has said that in addition to inflation, employment and consumer spending data would play a key factor in the RBA’s decision. Inflation is more than triple the RBA target, but the sharp rise in rates has dampened economic activity and further hikes could jeopardize a soft landing. The US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to record another decline. The RBA meets on Tuesday (Australia time) and is expected to pause rates.

Mixed data and international developments leave monetary experts unclear on Reserve Bank's cash rate decision for April.

“If this is the case, we may have already seen the last hike of this cycle,” he said. Jonathan Kearns, a senior economist with Challenger bank since leaving the RBA in February, said there “could be a couple more” rate rises to come before the cycle ends. [last month flagged the possibility of a rates pause](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/08/pause-in-interest-rate-rises-is-closer-rba-chief-philip-lowe-says-a-day-after-10th-straight-increase), depending on how the data played out. Economists including Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan note that major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have pushed through rate increases amid the financial turmoil of bank collapses. By contrast, 16 economists, including those at CBA and Westpac, predict the RBA will pause, leaving the rate at 3.6%. The RBA’s board will release its verdict at 2.30pm AEST. Another 25 basis point rise would lift monthly repayments on a typical $500,000 mortgage by about $78. “It’s still highly stimulatory.” The He said the The RBA governor, Philip Lowe,

After 10 consecutive interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), an unlikely loser has emerged.

“There are still families who’ve managed to trade out of a townhouse … He had one client who renewed their pre-approval five times as they struggled to find a house. “They’re about to come out into an environment where they’re paying a lot more.” With wage growth stagnant and borrowing capacity shrivelling up, couples are in a much stronger position to buy. people are making the move from a townhouse to a detached home.” “Almost without exception, they signed themselves into a fixed rate.

Shares add 0.2pc. Seek downgrades sales guidance, shares lose 4.5pc. Gold tops $US2000, lithium extends slide. Consensus split on RBA. Follow updates here.

An underlying inflation rate of 6.2 per cent is the RBA’s forecast for the June quarter. However, we stick to our view for another ‘dovish’ 25 basis points hike, taking the cash rate to 3.85 per cent, and think the decision is a closer call than implied by market pricing.” With markets no longer pricing in RBA hikes, it would be odd for the Bank to hike given the uncertainty in the global outlook.” “A softer than expected March quarter inflation read will reduce the need for further hikes. “The RBNZ tends to be more at the forefront of cycles globally,” Thompson said. “From the demand side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is relatively lower compared with the first half of March. TD Securities: “February CPI inflation surprised to the downside and marked the 2nd straight fall in annual inflation which gives room for RBA to pause. Overall, the current market maintains an imbalance between supply and demand which drives down the price,” said Ms Wang. “Our home loan price inquiry reports of 2018 and 2020 showed competition between the biggest four banks has been, at best, muted. All three yield curves inverted in the lead-up to previous global downturns. “I don’t think there’s a fundamental problem with the banking system,” she said. The KBW Bank Index of stocks also rose last week after three weeks of declines.

While inflation is softening, it remains stubbornly high, which suggests another rate hike could be on the cards when the central bank meets on Tuesday.

I think the RBA is going to have to raise rates a couple more times later in the year." "You could argue that the RBA said they were going to stay low for a while, and they bear some responsibility for that. And then they can pause and feel a little bit more comfortable that our interest rate is an appropriate level to pause," he told SBS News. And arguably, they're further along the decline in inflation rates than where we are; we're only just starting." "The evidence shows there is real pressure on certain households and businesses. And at the moment, I don't think they can say that." So what is likely to happen when the RBA board meets today? "Their charter is to get inflation under control, back to the 2-3 per cent band." And what can we expect over the coming months? "I think the RBA will stick to their original plan and get their cash rate up to 3.85 per cent. "Central banks overseas are still having a dogged fight with inflation and there's nothing to suggest that the inflationary environment in Australia is any different to that. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has gradually jacked up the cash rate from 0.1 per cent in April 2022 to 3.6 per cent in attempt to return inflation to its target band of 2 to 3 per cent.

Mortgage holders will be hoping for some interest rate relief from the Reserve Bank after 10 hikes in...

Three of the five confidence subindices increased, with 'current economic conditions' up 4.6 points, 'future economic conditions' up three points and 'future financial conditions' lifting 3.1 points. Despite the modest 1.6 point uptick in overall consumer confidence to 78.2 points, ANZ and Roy Morgan's weekly index remains stubbornly in depressed territory and has returned a below-80 point result for the fifth week in a row. Confidence among those paying off a mortgage fell 2.1 points to 70.5 points, putting the cohort 7.2 points below renters and those that own a home outright in ANZ and Roy Morgan's weekly index.

The Shadow RBA says hike 25bps which, given its hapless record, is a good indicator that the real RBA will not: For the current (April) round, ...

- Goldman’s stopped clock hawks are calling a hike so that’s another contrary indicator. Bloomberg consensus for a hold is 16-11.

Economists at TD Securities discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision and its implications for the AUD/USD pair. Hike +25 bp.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its monetary policy decision on April 4. Back in February 2022, the rate was 0.1% and now stands at 3.6%. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. “The motivation for the RBA to hike would be 1) It would be highly unlikely 1 month will be enough time for the RBA to assess the impact of its hikes since May'22. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. The development catapulted Dogecoin price by 30% to reclaim December highs around $0.107 before a brief reversal. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. Twitter CEO Elon Musk has updated the social media platform's website logo to a Shiba Inu dog. EUR/USD holds onto the week-start strength as bulls approach the all-important 1.0930 resistance. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. So why stop in April?; 2) The RBA could hike in April noting inflation is still high but signaling it's moving in the right direction leaving scope to pause in May following monthly inflation data for Jan and Feb suggesting Q1'23 CPI comes in below the RBA's implied 1.5% QoQ forecast; 3) The RBA pausing in April and then hiking in May potentially adds more confusion to the RBA's message.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision today on whether to end its series of 10 consecutive interest rate rises. The RBA is under severe ...

Former US president prepares to face court; Guardian Essential poll shows voters back capping power prices, lifting wages and cheaper childcare.

[sign up here](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/23/morning-mail-newsletter-best-daily-news-email-guardian-australia-free-sign-up-inbox-subscribe?CMP=copyembed). [Sign up for our Afternoon Update newsletter here](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/13/afternoon-update-newsletter-best-daily-news-email-guardian-australia-free-sign-up?CMP=copyembed). And the West Australian says, [Australia and the UK are poised to sign a major critical minerals deal](https://thewest.com.au/business/uk-and-australia-poised-to-sign-new-deal-on-critical-minerals-to-power-net-zero-future--c-10235670) “to power a net zero future”. [Today on Full Story](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2023/apr/04/chicken-feed-why-the-greens-are-blocking-labors-10bn-social-housing-plan), our political reporter Amy Remeikis breaks down the opposition to the bill and whether the tough negotiations ahead could result in a more ambitious housing plan. [the device gathered intelligence as it flew over sensitive military sites in the US](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/china-spy-balloon-us-military-intelligence), despite efforts by the White House to thwart its espionage mission. We’ll be bringing you that news as it happens this afternoon, probably about 2.30pm AEST – stay tuned to the day’s live blog, and for our analysis afterwards. If that’s had you thinking (/worrying) about your super, we’ve launched a series unpacking the main things to know, plus tips for boosting your balance – more on that below. Next up: a design show featuring 200,000 spouts from broken teapots and jugs. [over at our live blog](https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2023/apr/03/everton-v-tottenham-premier-league-live). Over in the US, the nation is glued to the spectacle of the former president Donald Trump leaving his Florida base and arriving in New York, where late tonight (our time) he’s due to face court. Schools phone ban No campaign

The Australian dollar stormed higher after weak US data and soaring oil prices boosted its appeal ahead of what could be a pivotal RBA rate decision.

A surprise cut in oil outputs by major producers, including Russia, underpinned anything related to commodities, including the Australian dollar. The local dollar rallied to the highest in more than a month to stand at US67.81¢. “In this case, we think the Australian dollar can lift modestly by 30‑50 pips,” said Kristina Clifton, a senior economist at CBA. ANZ is in the minority camp, predicting a cash rate lift. The RBA holds its policy meeting today and economists believe it will be a close call for the central bank between holding for the first time in nearly a year of relentless interest rate increases, and lifting the cash rate by another quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent. Further gains could be in store as long as the RBA keeps a hawkish stance.

The Reserve Bank is inching closer to the point it can take its foot off the accelerator but it's unclear if the central bank has done enough just yet.

The research explored how much buyers needed to earn to afford a house with a 20 per cent deposit but without contributing 30 per cent or more of their after-tax income toward repayments, which is how mortgage stress is defined. The RBA shadow board at the Australian National University is leaning towards another hike, attaching a 66 per cent probability to further increases and a 34 per cent probability of the cash rate staying on hold. The shadow board warned the looming expiry of more than 800,000 fixed-rate mortgages could prompt a surge in housing stress and combined with even a modest uptick in joblessness, could drive a significant lift in defaults.

As Australians grapple with financial hardships, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces a tough decision on whether to continue its streak of interest ...

The cash rate stands at 3.60%, for now… Diana Mousina – Senior Economist at AMP Capital thinks a pause on increases is likely when the decision is handed down at 2:30pm today. Interest Rate Preview – Will the RBA Pause increases?

The Australian sharemarket has climbed after the Reserve Bank said it would keep official interest rates unchanged at 3.6 per cent this month, ...

“I was at the conference in 1994 when Joan Kirner and Penny Wong and Julia Gillard had the fight that said, it’s not enough to have a target. The prices of utilities are also rising quickly. You need to have rules, and you need to be committed. “Rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years, with vacancy rates low in many parts of the country. The defence claimed the acts of digital penetration and oral sex were “entirely consensual”. “In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market,” he said. “The decision to hold interest rates steady this month provides the board with more time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook, in an environment of considerable uncertainty.” “The board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of this substantial increase in interest rates is yet to be felt,” he said. “The discussions and the challenges facing the economy and the budget that are actually some of the decisions that we’re right in the thick of right now. “There is further evidence that the combination of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and a decline in housing prices is leading to a substantial slowing in household spending,” Lowe said. “We acknowledge that inflation is the key challenge in the economy, and getting that back to target range is a priority,” she said. “Critical to this evaluation will be the degree of restraint in price setting by businesses and governments, in wage negotiations and the wage determinations of the Fair Work Commission.”

RBA pauses on rises, leaves cash rate at 3.60%. Peter Hannam. For the first time in 11 board meetings, the Reserve Bank of Australia has ...

Some of the work we’re doing on the energy price rebates and support for getting wages moving in, but I think everyone will recognise that it will take more than one budget to deal with the inflation challenge. It remains a key priority as we finalise in the budget what will be handed down in May … It does need to leave itself some room, however, I would characterise this as a hawkish pause – pausing for now but it’s certainly not saying ‘relax, we are done’. Emily Wind will now take you through the rest of today’s news! A slight majority of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had tipped the RBA would leave its interest rate unchanged. Investors had been expecting the pause even if commercial economists were split. Service NSW has notified customers who may have been affected, a Service NSW spokesperson said. The banks [are] obviously going to keep an eye on that as they should. the pressures that are coming forward are all for very worthy measures. But you know, the pressures on the budget are real. The central bank’s cash rate remains at 3.6%. So when people say cut this and cut that, I’m going through it line by line [and] these are not easy decisions to take.

Mortgage holders can breathe a sigh of relief after the Reserve Bank halted its unprecedented run of interest rate rises.

Inflation remains uncomfortably high, and the very tight labour and rental markets have the potential to provide an upside surprise on inflation.” Westpac, Commonwealth Bank and the financial markets had tipped a pause. Inflation rose to 6.8 per cent in 12 months to February, falling from 7.4 per cent annual growth in January and down from the peak of 8.4 per cent in December. Dr Lowe warned the “full effect of (the) substantial increase in interest rates is yet to be felt”. “The board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that,” he said. “The decision to hold interest rates steady this month provides the Board with more time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook, in an environment of considerable uncertainty.”