S&P 500

2023 - 1 - 10

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Image courtesy of "Forbes"

S&P Could Fall 24% This Year, Morgan Stanley Says, But One ... (Forbes)

A flurry of earnings reports later this month will give a glimpse into how well companies navigated surging interest rates and recession concerns.

Bearish warnings from major banks did not spook Wall Street, with the S&P, Dow Jones Industrial Average and tech-heavy Nasdaq each notching 0.4% or more gains Monday after having their best respective performances since November on Friday. That indicates 24% downside from the index’s 3,930 mark as of Monday and would be the S&P’s lowest mark since May 2020. The energy sector, which was

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Stock market outlook: S&P 500 could fall 22%, Morgan Stanley says (Markets Insider)

"The bottom line, we don't think a 3500-3600 S&P 500 is consistent with the consensus view for a mild recession," says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.

The S&P 500 at 3,900 is a "good level to be selling into again in front of what is likely to be another weak earnings season led by poor profitability and the broader introduction of 2023 guidance," said Wilson. That is one way the consensus could be right directionally, but wrong in terms of magnitude," said Wilson. However, this "ignores the ramifications of falling prices on profit margins, which is likely to outweigh any benefit from the perceived Fed dovishness equity investors are dreaming about later this year," said Wilson. The bond rally suggested investors see slowing economic growth as laying the groundwork for the Fed to claw back its aggressive interest rates increases. The equity market is vulnerable to weaker corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve that is set to stick firmly with battling inflation largely though raising interest rates. On this score, the surprise might be how much lower stocks could trade (3,000) if a recession arrives," wrote Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.

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Image courtesy of "DailyFX"

S&P 500, Nasdaq Extend Gains While Inflation Expectations Ease (DailyFX)

US equity futures have extended gains while US inflation expectations declined. With S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures clearing resistance, USD remains strained ...

[inflation](https://www.dailyfx.com/topics/inflation)expectations fall to 5% (from 5.2%) ahead of US CPI – has inflation peaked? As bulls continued to drive price action higher, SPX futures extended gains driving prices back above 3950. [Tammy Da Costa](https://www.dailyfx.com/authors/Tammy_Da_Costa) using TradingView [Economic Calendar](https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#next-seven-days) [The QuizDiscover what kind of forex trader you are](https://www.dailyfx.com/research/dna-fx) [@Tams707](https://twitter.com/Tams707) [DailyFX](https://www.dailyfx.com) provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. [ Recommended by Tammy Da CostaGet Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast](https://www.dailyfx.com/free-trading-guides#forecastschoices=TOP) [DailyFX education section](https://www.dailyfx.com/education)to learn more about [how central banks impact forex markets](https://www.dailyfx.com/education/forex-fundamental-analysis/how-central-banks-impact-forex.html) [ Recommended by Tammy Da CostaGet Your Free Equities Forecast](https://www.dailyfx.com/free-trading-guides#forecastschoices=EQUITIES) [growth outlook](https://www.dailyfx.com/topics/gdp-news) remains under pressure, renewed hopes of a Fed pivot and lower yields assisted in driving [USD](https://www.dailyfx.com/usd) lower, fueling an equity rally. [NFP](https://www.dailyfx.com/nfp) (non-farm payroll report) was met with mixed reactions. [unemployment rate](https://www.dailyfx.com/education/macro-fundamentals/employment.html) falling to multi-decade lows at 3.5%, softer wage [growth](https://www.dailyfx.com/topics/gdp-news) and [weak ISM data](https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-fx-usd-us-dollar-sinks-to-support-after-pmis-cpi-data-ahead-20230109.html) indicated a slowdown in the economy suggesting that price pressures may continue to ease. [symmetrical wedge formation highlighted by James Stanley last week](https://www.dailyfx.com/news/spx-es-spy-sp-500-nasdaq-dow-jones-range-through-fomc-minutes-nfp-on-deck-20230104.html), a move above 3900 drove S&P 500 higher before peaking at 3928. [S&P 500](https://www.dailyfx.com/sp-500)futures rise above critical resistance while 4000 [psychological level](https://www.dailyfx.com/education/understanding-the-stock-market/stock-market-psychology.html)looms [Nasdaq](https://www.dailyfx.com/nas-100)100 futures boosted by tech stocks – can prices return to 11,500?

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Image courtesy of "Reuters"

S&P 500 near flat as investors weigh chances of less aggressive ... (Reuters)

The S&P 500 index erased early gains to close nearly flat on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest ...

[(.SPLRCT)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPLRCT) gained as Treasury yields fell. [(.DJI)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.DJI) fell 112.96 points, or 0.34%, to 33,517.65, the S&P 500 [(.SPX)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPX) lost 2.99 points, or 0.08%, to 3,892.09 and the Nasdaq Composite [(.IXIC)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.IXIC) added 66.36 points, or 0.63%, to 10,635.65. A consumer prices report due Thursday could be key for rate expectations, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. [(M.N)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/M.N) fell 7.7% and Lululemon Athletica Inc [(LULU.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/LULU.O) dropped 9.3% after both retailers issued disappointing holiday-quarter forecasts. [(AVGO.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/AVGO.O) fell in late trading to end down 2% after Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, [reported](/technology/apple-drop-key-broadcom-chip-2025-in-house-design-bloomberg-news-2023-01-09/) that Apple Inc [(AAPL.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/AAPL.O) plans to drop a Broadcom chip in 2025 and use an in-house design instead. [(TSLA.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/TSLA.O) shares rose 5.9% after the electric-vehicle maker indicated [longer waiting times](/business/autos-transportation/tesla-delivery-time-is-longer-some-china-models-after-discounts-2023-01-09/) for some versions of the Model Y in China, signaling the recent price cuts could be stoking demand. Consumer discretionary stocks [(.SPLRCD)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPLRCD) also rose, with Amazon.com Inc [(AMZN.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/AMZN.O) up 1.5% after Jefferies said it saw cost pressures easing for the e-commerce giant in the second half of the year. [The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.](https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/about-us/trust-principles.html) [(.IXIC)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.IXIC) ended well off the day's highs. [(.SPX)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPX) erased early gains to close nearly flat on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest rate hikes were offset by lingering worries about inflation. Register for free to Reuters and know the full story NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 index

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Image courtesy of "Proactive Investors USA & Canada"

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq build on Friday rally as investors ... (Proactive Investors USA & Canada)

12:07pm: Jobs report "ticked every box," analyst says At midday, the Dow was up 242 points, 0.7%, to 33873, the Nasdaq Composite added 222...

“This week also marks the start of the earnings season, with proceedings being opened by the likes of Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan,” Hunter continued. “If Friday’s price action tells us anything it’s that investors really want to believe the peak inflation narrative that has helped support the rebound in equity markets that we’ve seen so far this year,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. "Jobs growth was good but not too much, participation improved, wage growth moderated and revisions to the November data eradicated any fears that the report initially triggered. According to online retail trading platform, Capital.com, bullish market sentiment on Tesla stock appears to be on the rise, reflected by the surge in trading volumes and the growing number of long CFD positions in the stock in the past week. The embattled retailer warned recently that it could go bankrupt. In between was the S&P 500 which ended little changed. Stocks ended the week in the green, with the S&P 500 closing 2.8% higher at 3,895, the Nasdaq Composite up 2.6% at 10,569, and the DJIA rounding out the pack with a gain of 2.1% to close at 33,631. "Last week's jobs report ticked every box," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst, UK & EMEA, at OANDA . Just after the market opened, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 162 points or 0.5% at 33,793 points, the S&P 500 was up 25 points or 0.6% at 3,920 points, and the Nasdaq Composite had gained 111 points or 1% at 10,5673 points. Stocks on the move included Tesla Inc. At midday, the Dow was up 242 points, 0.7%, to 33,873, the Nasdaq Composite added 222 points, 2.1%, to 10,792 and the S&P 500 improved 49 points, 1.3%, to 3,944. At the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 113 points, or 0.33%, to 33,518, the S&P 500 fell 3 points, or 0.08%, to 3,892 but the Nasdaq Composite jumped 66 points, or 0.63%, to 10,636.

US STOCKS-S&P 500 near flat as investors weigh chances of less ... (Yahoo Finance)

The S&P 500 index erased early gains to close nearly flat on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest ...

S&P 500 jumps as bets on less hawkish Fed fuel tech rally (Yahoo Finance Australia)

Investing.com -- The S&P 500 gave up gains Monday, as value sectors of the market including financials partly offset tech strength as Treasury yields continued ...

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Stocks Almost Flat as S&P 500 Struggles Near 3900: Markets Wrap (swissinfo.ch)

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson said that while investors are generally pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth, corporate profit estimates are indeed ...

part in 2025, according to people familiar with the situation. Still, the rising threat of an economic contraction has done nothing to dissuade Corporate America from spending big on its own shares. 24 low to over 20%. Elsewhere, equities in developing nations entered a bull market amid a rally fueled by optimism over China’s reopening and a weakening dollar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, while the Nasdaq 100 rose thanks to gains in big tech, with Tesla Inc. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that while investors are generally pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth, corporate profit estimates are indeed still too high. The figures will be among the last such readings Fed officials will see before their Jan. The S&P 500 failed to stay above the key 3,900 level, erasing an advance that reached almost 1.5%. “It could be a recipe for choppy near-term and long-term trading.” Her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic noted that policymakers should hike above 5% by early in the second quarter and then go on hold for “a long time.” Investors also awaited Thursday’s US CPI report that will come out almost a week after the latest jobs data showed that wage growth has decelerated. The dollar and Treasury yields pared their declines.

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Image courtesy of "ShareCast"

Morgan Stanley says S&P 500 may bottom at around 3000 points (ShareCast)

US stocks were set to fall much further than many pessimists anticipated with a recession likely to add to their losses, Morgan Stanley strategists said.

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Image courtesy of "Investing.com Australia"

S&P 500 at 3900? An 'easy' sell - Morgan Stanley (Investing.com Australia)

However, equity strategists - including at Morgan Stanley - continue to urge investors that valuations remain elevated amid wide expectations that earnings ...

That is one way the consensus could be right directionally, but wrong in terms of magnitude,” the strategists added. This is in stark contrast to the other popular narrative we hear from the buy and sell side—i.e., that higher inflation is good for nominal GDP and, therefore, revenues and profits,” they wrote in their regular weekly note to clients. On this score, the surprise might be how much lower stocks could trade (3,000) if a recession arrives.” “Back in August, we first warned that peaking inflation is a positive for bonds, but it's also very negative for profitability. Given that the Fed remains committed to keeping high rates until there is clear evidence inflation is going back to its long-term target of 2%, the markets welcomed the slowdown in wage growth. [S&P 500](/indices/us-spx-500) closed over 2.2% higher last week, buoyed by softer-than-expected wage growth in the U.S.

US STOCKS-S&P 500 near flat as investors weigh chances of less ... (Kalkine Media)

(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click LIVE/ or type LIVE/ in a news window). *. Tech shares gain.

(Additional reporting by Shubham Batra, Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Richard Chang) The technology sector gained as Treasury yields fell. A consumer prices report due Thursday could be key for rate expectations, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. *

US STOCKS-S&P 500 near flat as investors weigh likelihood of less ... (Yahoo Finance)

The S&P 500 index closed barely changed on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest rate hikes were ...

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Image courtesy of "Fox Business"

S&P 500 could sink another 22%, Morgan Stanley warns (Fox Business)

Morgan Stanley analysts have warned the U.S. stock market could plunge by another 22% this year because investors are underestimating corporate earnings.

This "ignores the ramifications of falling prices on profit margins, which is likely to outweigh any benefit from the perceived Fed dovishness equity investors are dreaming about later this year," he wrote. "On this score, the surprise might be how much lower stocks could trade (3,000) if a recession arrives." Stocks have rallied in early 2023, with the S&P up about 2% on Monday following the better-than-expected December jobs report that showed wage growth slowed markedly last month. [slowdown in inflation](https://foxbusiness.com/category/us-economy) weighs on corporate earnings, according to Wilson. Michael Wilson, the chief U.S. [expectation of a recession](https://foxbusiness.com/category/recession) in the first half of the year, investors may be underestimating the risk posed by weaker corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve committed to crushing inflation.

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Image courtesy of "Livemint"

Stocks almost flat as S&P 500 struggles near 3900 | Mint (Livemint)

A rally in stocks fizzled out after two Federal Reserve officials signaled that interest rates could top 5%, throwing some cold water on several traders who ...

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S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as investors bet on less aggressive rate hikes (Kitco NEWS)

Kitco News collects and features the top financial, economic and geopolitical news from around the world. Kitco's aggregated sources include some of the top ...

Treasury yields declined, while the Nasdaq led the rise among the major indexes. A consumer prices report due Thursday could be key for rate expectations, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. [(.DJI)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.DJI) fell 9.63 points, or 0.03%, to 33,620.98, the S&P 500 [(.SPX)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPX) gained 17.57 points, or 0.45%, to 3,912.65 and the Nasdaq Composite [(.IXIC)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.IXIC) added 138.83 points, or 1.31%, to 10,708.12. [(M.N)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/M.N) and Lululemon Athletica Inc [(LULU.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/LULU.O) fell after both retailers issued disappointing holiday-quarter forecasts. [(TSLA.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/TSLA.O) climbed after the electric-vehicle maker indicated [longer waiting times](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-delivery-time-is-longer-some-china-models-after-discounts-2023-01-09/) for some versions of the Model Y in China, signaling the recent price cuts could be stoking demand. [(.SPLRCD)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPLRCD) also rose sharply, with Amazon.com Inc [(AMZN.O)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/AMZN.O) up after Jefferies said it saw cost pressures easing for the e-commerce giant in the second half of the year. [(.SPLRCT)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPLRCT) led the gains among S&P 500 sectors as U.S. [(.IXIC)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.IXIC) and S&P 500 [(.SPX)](https://www.reuters.com/quote/.SPX) indexes rose Monday afternoon, led by technology shares, on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest rate hikes. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 114 new highs and 23 new lows.

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