Jim Chalmers

This week's federal budget is an exercise in building credibility: that's why Treasurer Jim Chalmers will try not to surprise us too much.

A “national conversation” sounds subtle and nuanced – but is often begun by a single announcement or a few blunt words, uttered by a politician ready to put their credibility on the line. But it was, in Kelly’s words, the “interview of the decade”; many of the changes that Keating and Hawke were later lionised for came from that shock, accidentally administered. But remember that Hawke and Keating faced international economic challenges too, and still needed to shock people to make their case – and that was in a far quieter media environment. According to Paul Kelly’s account – The End of Certainty – Keating later said it was a mistake. So, are we relying simply on the fact that this government will run a sustained case; that by repeating the arguments over several years voters will finally hear them? You could quibble with this – if you were able to extract meaning from the sentences – and you could more than quibble with the assertion that Morrison was known for “aggressively working toward a net-zero global emissions economy”. But here we come to the great difficulty facing the Albanese government. One is the idea of bringing voters with you. In opposition, Albanese publicly laid out the chronology of his political strategy and then stuck to it. Anthony Albanese and his treasurer are quite different politicians and so the similarity of their approach here is interesting. Morrison was in part brought down by his determination, over the almost four years he was in power, not to start any national conversations at all. In another respect, Truss and Morrison were at opposite ends of the spectrum.