La Nina

2022 - 9 - 13

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Bureau of Meteorology declares third La Niña is officially under way ... (The Guardian)

East coast communities prepare for more rain and floods as they enter relatively rare third year of climate event.

The bureau said the Southern Ocean’s influence will also tend to favour above-average rainfall. Together, the three regions point to another relatively wet spring and early summer at least for much of the country. “It’s not impossible to have one but I’d expect a neutral year or an El Niño one,” Santoso said. It’s fair to say there’s a La Niña happening.” The Pacific, though, is only one of the influences on Australia’s climate. “A La Niña has been lingering for many months,” Santoso said. Conversely, other regions are relatively dry, such as western parts of the Americas. The Indian Ocean dipole – which tracks relative sea-surface temperatures in the western and eastern regions of the basin – is now in its negative phase. “During the spring months, a positive SAM has a wetting influence for parts of eastern NSW and far eastern Victoria, but a drying influence for western Tasmania,” BoM said. Such so-called “three peat” La Niña’s are relatively rare, with some agencies listing 1954-57, 1973–1976 and 1998–2001 as previous ones. [issued by the bureau last week](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0), predicts above average rainfall for the eastern half of the country for the rest of the year. [its fortnightly update of Australia’s climate drivers](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/), the bureau said key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Enso) showed “an established La Niña”.

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Image courtesy of "South Coast Register"

Aust set for third consecutive La Nina (South Coast Register)

Another summer of heavy rainfall and humid, sticky nights is ahead for much of Australia as forecasters declare...

"Models indicate this La Nina event may peak during the spring and return to neutral conditions early in 2023," the BOM said. It comes after months of reports of a likely third appearance of the weather pattern, which leads to heavier-than-usual rainfall, and cooler temperatures across the north and east coasts. The outlook for the rest of 2022 has been raised to an established La Nina, according to atmospheric and oceanic indicators that inform the Bureau of Meteorology's La Nina alert system, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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Image courtesy of "ABC News"

BOM declares La Niña, increasing flood risk for third year in a row (ABC News)

So why does this climate driver bring so much rain and what should we expect this summer?

- Know the kind of flooding your area is prone to. You can find your local station on the "In our part of the world, in south-east Queensland, it still feels damp. - Sandbags can help to protect your home when used correctly. "I had a bit of a look at the numbers and in 1954 to 1957, and in the 1998 to 2001 events, the third La Niña was the weakest of the three events," Dr Gillett said. "Have our valuables ready to go, our pets at the ready and know where we can go when the rains do set in." With the lingering mould and mud, many will not want to face the coming summer, but Dr Cook is optimistic the La Niña will spur people into action. "The current forecasts suggest that La Niña will persist until at least the end of the year." "But for the 1973 to 1976 event, the second La Niña was the weakest. - This makes the third La Niña summer in a row and ups the risk of rain and flooding in the coming months "The problem with a triple La Niña is that the ground is very wet already, our rivers are quite high, our creeks are full and our dams are quite full," according to Dr Margaret Cook, environmental historian and lecturer at the University of the Sunshine Coast and researcher at Griffith University. After months of speculation it is finally Bureau of Meteorology official: we are in the third La Niña in row.

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Image courtesy of "Climate Council"

Third La Niña declared, experts respond | Climate Council (Climate Council)

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that a third La Niña event is underway in the Pacific, increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall during ...

We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community. Robert Quirk, a farmer from NSW, said: “This is not the news we wanted to hear. It’s really a wake-up call for governments to stop dragging their feet on the measures needed to protect communities from increasingly intense and destructive floods. “A third consecutive La Niña is likely to bring above average rainfall on an already saturated east coast, spelling tough times ahead for many Australians. “State and federal governments should implement the findings of the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, and the NSW Flood Inquiry as a priority, with a focus on helping vulnerable communities build resilience to climate disasters, as well as getting people out of harm’s way by limiting development on flood-prone land. “We know that extreme weather disasters are only going to get worse due to climate change, and policymakers know exactly how they should respond thanks to the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, and the NSW Flood Inquiry.

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Image courtesy of "ABC News"

La Niña's third iteration sees Festival of the Sun music event ... (ABC News)

A popular music festival in regional New South Wales is cancelled three months in advance due to the likelihood of more wet weather across Australia's east ...

the more impact your decision has on some of those smaller businesses." "We're seeing event organisers cancel all over the country for a range of reasons and, coming off the back of COVID, this is an industry that really needs to get up and running again." "The event organisers have to carry the burden. "We're extremely worried about the ability for festival organisers to put on their events this summer, not only because of weather events but the skill shortages we see." - The tourism and events industry said the cost of insurance posed a challenge for organisers The threat of "atrocious and unpredictable" weather this summer has prompted organisers to cancel a popular music festival three months in advance, with fears more events could be at risk.

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Image courtesy of "9News"

Australia's east coast set to be smashed by third-consecutive La ... (9News)

The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed La Niña is underway in the Pacific Ocean.

However, the Bureau of Meteorology also classify [1954 to 1957](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/enso/)as a triple-dip La Niña, making it three triple La Niña events between 1950 and 2019." "However, it is rare to see three consecutive La Niña events. "If you live in a flood-prone area, I urge you to take steps to prepare now. Make sure you know your risk, have an up-to-date emergency plan and emergency kit. CPC only recognise two triple-dip events in records dating back to 1950 ( "La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer."

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Image courtesy of "NEWS.com.au"

BOM declares terrible news for summer (NEWS.com.au)

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared a La Nina summer for the third time in a row, predicting another dire rain reason for Australia..

Positive SAM during summer pushes weather systems south, which increases the chance of rain in New South Wales, eastern Victoria and southern parts of Queensland.” “Australia‘s climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. “This causes changes in wind, cloud and pressure patterns over the Pacific.

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Image courtesy of "Proactive Investors Australia"

FIVE at FIVE AU: Another La Nina could hurt building sector; Star ... (Proactive Investors Australia)

Here's Proactive Australia's round-up of the top financial stories of the day, with helpful links taking you directly to the news.

[Magnetite Mines (ASX:MGT)](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/ASX:MGT/Magnetite-Mines/) plans to more than double iron ore output at Razorback to meet growing demand Having begun the week just below US$20,000, it fell to sub-US$18,500 before rallying to now trade around US$21,600 - an increase of around 8% over seven days. The inquiry took four months to complete, but it is unlikely to be stripped of its licence. “Elsewhere, a State Street executive Irfan Ahmad made comments with an Australian news outlet Sydney Morning Herald saying that despite volatility the firm’s clients were still buying into the space. This is a not uncommon move in such market conditions to provide liquidity to buy assets viewed as undervalued - which Saylor clearly thinks with his bitcoin strategy. “Last week, ether, the token associated with the Ethereum blockchain, rallied around 10% across the week, despite falls on Wednesday. The future outlook for the S&P/ASX200 is strong. The event is focusing all minds in the sector as investors and users wait to see its impact on the market. "Research analysts are expecting weaker earnings growth this financial year and next as the economy slows. The coming Ethereum merge has seen crypto assets rise. Of the sectors, Energy lifted 1.11%, Consumer Discretionary was 1.23% higher, Financials rose 1.01%, Utilities was 1.15% higher and Real Estate gained 1.60%. The S&P/ASX200 gained 49.20 points or 0.71% to 7,013.70, crossing above its 20-day moving average.

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Image courtesy of "The Conversation AU"

La Niña, 3 years in a row: a climate scientist on what flood-weary ... (The Conversation AU)

La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific vary between ...

[The Indian Ocean Dipole](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/) is characterised by variable sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and the Southern Annular Mode by the positioning of winds and weather systems to Australia’s south. While we’ve seen triple La Niña events before, we have never seen quadruple La Niña in the historical record. In 2011, after a La Niña and very wet conditions, we saw some of the biggest fires on record. This could mean Australia feels the force of La Niña and El Niño events more in future as the planet continues to heat. In fact, the 2001-2002 season that followed the 1998-2001 triple La Niña wasn’t a long way off from being yet another La Niña. Most seasonal prediction models are suggesting this La Niña event will be [weaker and shorter-lived](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#region=NINO34&tabs=Pacific-Ocean) than the last two. [more frequent and intense](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2492). For most of Australia, La Niña raises the chance of rain. And is a fourth La Niña on the cards? La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle over the tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s the third La Niña event in a row. Typically, stronger La Niña seasons are associated with more extreme rainfall in eastern Australia.

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Image courtesy of "The Sydney Morning Herald"

Third La Nina set to smash east coast this summer, again (The Sydney Morning Herald)

The Bureau of Meteorology made the announcement on Tuesday and said recent cooling in the central tropical Pacific and model outlooks indicated that cooler-than ...

[ocean temperatures](https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p5abwk) in the Northern Hemisphere, which creates drier onshore weather. The agency is preparing its units for future flooding events. Australia was one of the last countries to declare the La Nina event, with international models showing the climate event had already begun earlier this year. This is the first time on record that Australia has experienced three consecutive La Nina events coinciding with back-to-back negative IOD events. “Most of the time, we only get one La Nina year and then it swings back [to neutral],” he said. BOM forecaster Jake Phillips said the event is likely to be weak to moderate.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Australian La Niña dampens fire risk but threatens summer crops (The Guardian)

Confirmation of a third La Niña event is a relief for those living in bushfire areas but high rainfall brings its own troubles.

“We are getting to maximum saturation in a lot of areas,” he said. To have consistent annual rainfall and to have confidence in the seasons would be ideal, but I don’t think it would be called Australia.” That could be exacerbated by a shortage of agricultural workers on the east coast and the need to move harvesting machinery around in a short window of dry weather, she said. “It would be lovely to have a normal year, but in Monaro I think we have forgotten what normal is,” she said. “But I suppose it will be too wet to burn.” “It is very important for people to still continue to prepare their properties and make sure that they have a bushfire survival plan ready.”

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Image courtesy of "Canberra CityNews"

La Niña to hit Australia for third consecutive year | Canberra CityNews (Canberra CityNews)

The weather event will see increased rainfall across the eastern side of Australia. THE Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has predicted a wet summer as a La Niña ...

“We’re also preparing to launch a new warning system at the end of September. “Now is the time for the community to do their part and prepare their home and families to ensure the ACT is Emergency ready.” “Our team of teams, including ACT Rural Fire Service, ACT State Emergency Service, ACT Fire & Rescue and ACT Ambulance Service, has been working hard to prepare for the hazard season,” said Whelan.

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Image courtesy of "Echonetdaily"

La Nina coming again as world careens towards uncharted climate ... (Echonetdaily)

We've experienced a number of difficult years on the Northern Rivers and the east coast of Australia as we've lurched from crippling drought and bushfires ...

Prolonged and severe droughts in China, the Horn of Africa and the United States. Positive SAM during summer pushes weather systems south, which increases the chance of rain in New South Wales, eastern Victoria and southern parts of Queensland,’ he said. The last seven years have been the warmest on record and fossil fuel emission rates are now above pre-pandemic levels after a temporary drop due to lockdowns. When this change in the atmosphere combines with changes in ocean temperature, it can influence global weather patterns and climate, including increasing rainfall over large parts of Australia.’ This causes changes in wind, cloud and pressure patterns over the Pacific. They are the price of humanity’s fossil fuel addiction,’ he said. There is nothing natural about the new scale of these disasters. Colossal floods in Pakistan. We expect the IOD influence will reduce in late spring or early summer,’ Dr Watkins said. Heatwaves in Europe. To our west, a significant negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway. [destruction from flooding](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#msdynttrid=uH1gNQyTb28s2BhG9SP4nJJBa03riTcS_AGrWhrZBhY).

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Image courtesy of "South Burnett Online"

BOM Confirms Third La Niña - southburnett.com.au (South Burnett Online)

This means above-average rainfall over spring and early summer, especially for most of the eastern half of the Australian mainland and eastern Tasmania. It will ...

We also know from the historical loss record, that flood and cyclone losses along the east coast are significantly correlated with periods of La Niña,” Dr Mortlock said. Positive SAM during summer pushes weather systems south, which increases the chance of rain in NSW, eastern Victoria and southern parts of Queensland.” a third La Niña is now under way in the Pacific Ocean.

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