US inflation

2022 - 8 - 11

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Dow futures rip higher by 400 points after lighter-than-expected ... (CNBC)

Investors are awaiting the July consumer price index report due Wednesday, which will give the Federal Reserve further data on inflation.

The billionaire investor is currently embroiled in a legal battle with Twitter, which he had agreed to buy for about $44 billion. "I still think the Federal Reserve is on for 75 basis points….They need to see much more improvement than this sustained, especially in the core. "The curve has flattened to negative-50 basis points between 2s and 10s. When the 2-year Treasury yield trades above the 10-year yield, many on Wall Street see that as strong recession indicator. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 6 basis points to 2.96%. It is sometimes called Wall Street's "fear gauge," and tends to spike when investors are more uncertain about the future. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 500 points following a better-than-expected inflation report which lifted stocks, especially in technology and banks. With about an hour left in Wednesday's trading session, the Dow is holding onto a rally of more than 400 points. "It looks like the odds of another 75 basis point hike by the Fed have dipped significantly in the wake of this report and we could only see a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting. Shares of Disney surged more than 5% after hours when the company reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines, with strong spending at theme parks. ... If we continue to see declining inflation prints, the Federal Reserve may start to slow the pace of monetary tightening," said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. Since 1990, that would be the 10th longest such streak, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

US stocks and bonds rally after lower than forecast inflation data (Financial Times)

Consumer price index reading raises hopes of slower pace of Fed rate increases.

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Image courtesy of "PBS NewsHour"

U.S. inflation at 8.5 percent, slips from from 40-year high (PBS NewsHour)

Falling gas prices gave Americans a slight break from the pain of high inflation last month, though the surge in overall prices slowed only modestly from ...

In the U.K., inflation soared 9.4% in June from a year earlier, a four-decade high. The Fed has raised its benchmark short-term rate at its past four rate-setting meetings, including a three-quarter point hike in both June and July — the first increases that large since 1994. One-third of Americans rent their homes, and higher rental costs are leaving many of them with less money to spend on other items. But the New York Fed survey found that Americans’ foresee lower inflation one, three and five years from now than they did a month ago. Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed needs to see a series of declining monthly core inflation readings before it would consider pausing its rate hikes. On Friday, the House is poised to give final congressional approval to a revived tax-and-climate package pushed by Biden and Democratic lawmakers.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

US inflation falls to 8.5% in July but still close to multi-decade high (The Guardian)

Gas prices drop sharply after a hitting a national average of $5 a gallon in mid-June.

Energy and food prices are notoriously volatile and could still rise again. After stripping out food and energy costs – which are highly volatile – prices climbed by 5.9% in the year to the end of July, matching last month’s reading. The labor department reported that the gasoline index fell 7.7% in July, offsetting increases in the food and shelter indexes.

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Image courtesy of "Quartz"

US inflation was 0% in July (Quartz)

After months of touching historic highs, it looks like US inflation has finally peaked—barring any unforeseen shocks. US consumer prices didn't increase at ...

That’s still a far cry from the record-high lumber prices in May 2021, and should contribute to lower prices for another key item: new homes. Lower prices for other commodities point to further relief farther down the line. In July, prices for a slew of commodities and raw materials dropped, including various types of food. On the year, prices rose by 8.5% on the year, down from 9.1% in June. While monthly prices didn’t budge, inflation for food and housing accelerated in June, a concerning sign for Fed officials. That’s a marked slowdown from June, when prices rose 1.3%, and the lowest monthly inflation rate in more than two years.

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Image courtesy of "WAtoday"

Inflation surprise could change the game for interest rates (WAtoday)

It is, of course, premature to declare victory on the basis of a single month's numbers but the underlying influences on the fall in America's headline inflation rate from a 41-year high of 9.1 per cent in June to 8.5 per cent in July were encouraging. The ...

The prospect of some tapering of the likely path of Fed rate rises led to a slight softening of the US dollar against other major currencies. The caveats within any assessment of inflation rates is the geopolitical turbulence. That will come as a relief to other central banks, including the Reserve Bank, worried about capital outflows and imported inflation if the US dollar continued to strengthen. Fed officials, however, have remained quite hawkish, perhaps because they don’t want to risk reversing the recent decline in US consumer and business expectations of future inflation. The markets’ responses were driven by an optimistic assessment of the implications of the data for future US rate rises. Declines in travel-related costs, clothing and education also contributed to the easing of the rate.

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Image courtesy of "The Wall Street Journal"

U.S. Inflation Eased Slightly to 8.5% in July (The Wall Street Journal)

The Labor Department on Wednesday said the consumer-price index, a measure of what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 8.5% in July from the same month a ...

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Image courtesy of "Sky News Australia"

US inflation slows slightly to 8.5 per cent (Sky News Australia)

Tech shares in America have entered a bull market, with the Nasdaq up more than 20 per cent since mid-May as the United States' annual inflation figure ...

“It’s saying, ‘inflation’s peaked’ and the bond market likes that. “The number was much better than I thought … but if you delve into the number a little, there’s still things you could get worried about.” “And the stock market likes that,” he told Sky News Business Editor Ross Greenwood.

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Image courtesy of "The Australian Financial Review"

ASX rises 1.1pc as US inflation eases (The Australian Financial Review)

Australian shares traded to a high of 7071 following a rally on Wall Street after inflation surprised on the downside.

The diversified developer reported a final comprehensive income of $924 million as revenue jumped almost 20 per cent to $2.8 billion as it settled 2523 residential lots, in line with its prediction for the year. The company also delivered a surprise increase in its final dividend to 8.5¢ per share. Meanwhile, insurance giant QBE rose 3.3 per cent to $12.54 despite revealing a hefty fall in profits. Among companies delivering earnings updates, shares in AMP fell after the wealth manager reported a 24.5 per cent slump in half-year profit. However, he warned there was more work to be done, noting the comments of US Federal Reserve officials Neel Kashkari and Charles Evans that inflation remains unacceptably high. The S&P All Ordinaries similarly rose 1.2 per cent or 86.7 points to 7325.4 points. Nasdaq gains lifted Australia-listed tech names Novonix, Life360, Brainchip and Block. US equities were the major beneficiaries, the interest-rate sensitive Nasdaq advancing to its highest level in three months. Computershare fell 5.1 per cent to $23, adding to its loss of 4.85 per cent on Wednesday. Telstra shares fell 1.25 per cent to $3.96 after the telco revealed a dip in revenue and profits, largely in line with analyst expectations and the company’s earlier guidance. Financial markets are now pricing in a 50 per cent chance of a 75 basis point interest rate increase at the next US Federal Reserve in September, compared to a 75 per cent chance before the release. Shares have lost 77 per cent of their value over the past five years and closed on Thursday down 0.9 per cent to $1.15.

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Image courtesy of "The Sydney Morning Herald"

Inflation surprise could change the game for interest rates (The Sydney Morning Herald)

The US appears to have finally passed peak inflation, raising the prospect that the path of future interest rate rises there and around the world ...

The prospect of some tapering of the likely path of Fed rate rises led to a slight softening of the US dollar against other major currencies. The caveats within any assessment of inflation rates is the geopolitical turbulence. That will come as a relief to other central banks, including the Reserve Bank, worried about capital outflows and imported inflation if the US dollar continued to strengthen. Fed officials, however, have remained quite hawkish, perhaps because they don’t want to risk reversing the recent decline in US consumer and business expectations of future inflation. The markets’ responses were driven by an optimistic assessment of the implications of the data for future US rate rises. Declines in travel-related costs, clothing and education also contributed to the easing of the rate.

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Image courtesy of "advisorperspectives.com"

US Inflation Runs Cooler Than Forecast, Easing Pressure on Fed (advisorperspectives.com)

US inflation decelerated in July by more than expected, reflecting lower energy prices, which may take some pressure off the Federal Reserve to continue ...

Shelter costs -- which are the biggest services’ component and make up about a third of the overall CPI index -- rose 0.5% from June and 5.7% from last year, the most since 1991. After data last week showed still-robust labor demand and firmer wage growth, a further deceleration in inflation could take some of the urgency off the Fed to extend outsize interest-rate hikes. The impact of inflation on wages has started to dent spending, with the pace of personal consumption growth decelerating between the first and second quarters. But annual inflation remains high at more than 8% and food costs continue to rise, providing little relief for President Joe Biden and the Democrats ahead of midterm elections. The core and overall measures came in below forecast. A decline in gasoline offset increases in food and shelter costs.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Dollar bruised after U.S. inflation comes in below expectations (CNBC)

The euro and Japanese yen were sitting pretty on Thursday morning after U.S. inflation data overnight came in less hot than feared and sent the dollar ...

The euro and Japanese yen were sitting pretty on Thursday morning after U.S. inflation data overnight came in less hot than feared and sent the dollar tumbling. If price rises have reached their zenith, investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will not have to maintain its eye-wateringly steep pace of interest rate hikes, which had been supporting the dollar. - The euro and Japanese yen were sitting pretty on Thursday morning after U.S. inflation data overnight came in less hot than feared and sent the dollar tumbling. - If price rises have reached their zenith, investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will not have to maintain its eye-wateringly steep pace of interest rate hikes, which had been supporting the dollar.

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Image courtesy of "Reuters"

Dollar slides further after U.S. inflation surprise (Reuters)

The dollar lost further ground versus other major currencies on Thursday, after traders reined in bets on an aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal ...

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Image courtesy of "Christian Science Monitor"

Finally, U.S. inflation slows, but will the reprieve last? (Christian Science Monitor)

Inflation is beginning to wane, offering Americans some relief. However, while things look set to improve, the U.S. economy is still grappling with the ...

In the U.K., inflation soared 9.4% in June from a year earlier, a four-decade high. Last month’s modest slowdown in inflation might enable the Fed to slow the pace of its increases in short-term rates when it meets in late September – a possibility that sent stock prices jumping. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the central bank needs to see a series of lower readings on core inflation before it will pause rate hikes. Last month’s declines in travel-related prices helped lower core inflation, a measure that excludes the volatile food and energy categories and provides a clearer picture of underlying price trends. That’s mostly because of higher gas prices but also because it’s now using more trucks to keep up with the demand for food. There are other signs that inflation may fade in coming months. Bread prices leaped 2.8% last month, the most in more than two years. Average paychecks are rising faster than they have in decades, but not fast enough to keep up with inflation. Republicans, who have made inflation a top campaign issue, stressed that prices are still painfully high. Airfares are still nearly 30% higher than they were a year ago. And even if price increases continue to weaken, they are a long way from the Fed’s 2% annual target. Mr. Biden highlighted the flat monthly inflation figure.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

US inflation finally takes a breather (Financial Times)

The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson and Marc Filippino. The show's editor is Jess Smith. Additional help by Peter Barber, Michael ...

The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music. US stocks and bonds rally after lower than forecast inflation data US stocks rallied after the latest US inflation report showed price rises slowed in July, Disney beat analyst expectations and added 15mn subscribers to its Disney+ streaming service, and social media companies want livestreams to be the future of shopping.

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Image courtesy of "CBS News"

Investors cheered by another sign U.S. inflation is easing (CBS News)

Economy is "experiencing a healthy deceleration, not a recession," Goldman Sachs analyst says.

Even if the Fed can manage to slow the economy enough to stamp out inflation without causing a recession, higher interest rates pull downward on prices for all kinds of investments regardless. Traders are now betting on the Fed to raise overnight interest rates by half a percentage point at its meeting next month. But a resilient jobs market has offered a strong counterweight, leading to a muddied outlook for the economy. Energy stocks as a group rose 3.6% for the biggest gain among the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500. In afternoon trading the S&P 500 was up 13 points, or 0.3%, to 4,223, with roughly four out of five stocks on the index rising. Goldman Sachs analyst Manuel Abacasis said in a research note that current economic data suggests "the economy is experiencing a healthy deceleration, not a recession."

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Image courtesy of "Christian Science Monitor"

Finally, U.S. inflation slows, but will the reprieve last? (Christian Science Monitor)

Inflation is beginning to wane, offering Americans some relief. However, while things look set to improve, the U.S. economy is still grappling with the ...

In the U.K., inflation soared 9.4% in June from a year earlier, a four-decade high. Last month’s modest slowdown in inflation might enable the Fed to slow the pace of its increases in short-term rates when it meets in late September – a possibility that sent stock prices jumping. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the central bank needs to see a series of lower readings on core inflation before it will pause rate hikes. Last month’s declines in travel-related prices helped lower core inflation, a measure that excludes the volatile food and energy categories and provides a clearer picture of underlying price trends. That’s mostly because of higher gas prices but also because it’s now using more trucks to keep up with the demand for food. There are other signs that inflation may fade in coming months. Bread prices leaped 2.8% last month, the most in more than two years. Average paychecks are rising faster than they have in decades, but not fast enough to keep up with inflation. Republicans, who have made inflation a top campaign issue, stressed that prices are still painfully high. Airfares are still nearly 30% higher than they were a year ago. And even if price increases continue to weaken, they are a long way from the Fed’s 2% annual target. Mr. Biden highlighted the flat monthly inflation figure.

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Image courtesy of "FXStreet"

Awaiting more US inflation data (FXStreet)

Risk on moves build momentum after stocks climb following lower than consensus US July CPI, albeit elevated at 8.5% YoY. US Fed Daly dampened bullis.

- BOE’s Pill (chief economist) noted that wage growth was running too fast at present time; pricing pass-through from companies was too high. Recent Fed speak hinted that inflation might prove stickier despite the surprisingly low July CPI. More inflation data to be released on Thursday with PPI. - 17:00 (KR) South Korea July Export Price Index Y/Y: No est v 23.7% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: No est v 33.6% prior; Export Price M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Import Price M/M: No est v 0.5% prior. - Focus continued to be on inflation data with US PPI reading on Thursday. Dealers noted that markets had increase their bets on a less hawkish Fed next month after CPI raised hopes that price rises had reached their zenith. - Focus continues to be on inflation data. Report noted that European heatwaves seen boosting demand for oil; Decline in Russian oil supply was less than previously expected. Plethora of negative news recently as BOE warned of five consecutive quarter recession, energy price cap increase to further strain consumer pockets, heatwaves restrict household water usage and stress power grids and multiple public sector workforces strike. - European macro news is quiet amid a busy earnings morning as the reporting season begins to taper off. EU bond yields are higher. Issuances and speakers are quieter as summer pushes financial sector workers onto holiday. Hopes for a shallower or even paused rate path are reinforced with recent US GDP readings technically tipping the country into a recession. Nasdaq100 teases 13,400 handle, with ATH still a way off at 16,764.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

US stocks dip after signs of steadying inflation (Financial Times)

The broad-based S&P 500 ended the day down less than 0.1 per cent, having closed 2.1 per higher on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite — which is weighted towards ...

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