Recession

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business ...

Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in the first half of the year, while domestic demand continued to grow. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators". "If you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well," he said. - Joe Biden said: "We see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well" - Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in the first half of the year The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a glass-half-full assessment of the US economy, acknowledging a slowdown that she called necessary to tame inflation ...

“We need to see a slowdown,” Yellen said. The NBER’s business cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two quarterly contractions in gross domestic product is conclusive of a recession. She also endorsed once again steps taken by the central bank. While two straight quarters of economic contraction fit a global, broad definition of a “technical” recession, the White House has pushed back against that determination, citing job growth and consumer spending. The Treasury chief repeatedly stressed the positive, pointing to continued job creation, strong household finances, gains in consumer spending and growth in business. “That is not what we’re seeing right now.”

Yes and no. Look at the jobs market. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, near a half-century low. Wages are also rising, although not as quickly as inflation, and ...

At the same time, the jobs market is good and consumer spending – the biggest driver of the economy – is OK, for now. Powell said he didn’t believe the US was in recession but – and it’s a big but – he expects the Fed’s rate hikes to slow the economy and the job market to weaken. On Wednesday the Fed sharply raised rates again and Powell was repeatedly asked if the US was in, or was heading towards, a recession. On top of that, you can bet that were the Republicans in power, Democrats would be calling two quarters of GDP decline a recession. In the first three months of the year GDP contracted at an annual rate of 1.6%. Is the US in a recession?

The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter. While some call that a recession or a strong sign of one, a financial economist explains why the term ...

The economy does not appear to be in a recession at the moment, given how strong the labor market is. “It doesn’t make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening.” Right now it’s flat, but when it starts to decline, a recession is usually on its heels. Keep in mind, 2021 boasted one of its best U.S. economies in decades, so maybe Americans can accept a so-so 2022. Recessions are complicated to identify, given that the economy is big and has many parts. While two quarters of economic contraction typically do coincide with a recession, they also do not typically involve the hot job growth the U.S. economy has seen this year. The economy is typically not in recession if almost everyone who wants a job has one. Some observers suggest the two quarters of contraction constitute a “technical recession” or the “ unofficial start” of one, while others suggest it at least raises fears or signals it’s on the way. 1) How quickly the economy is contracting. As for some of the more negative news, investment in residential housing and property declined 14%, which makes sense given how much it had been rising since the pandemic upended the housing market. In theory, they should move more or less in tandem, but gross domestic income continues to grow. The U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate 0.9% from April through June, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated on July 28, 2022.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

She did not discuss the impact that monetary and fiscal stimulus had on price pressures. Consumer and business confidence levels have plunged, with recent surveys showing a solid majority of Americans believe the country is in recession. "We know there are challenges ahead of us. The National Bureau of Economic Research, however, is the official arbiter of recessions, and likely won't rule for months. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a glass-half-full assessment of the US economy, acknowledging a slowdown that she called necessary to tame inflation ...

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy doesn't appear to be in a recession despite two straight quarters of negative gross domestic ...

Yellen, however, said the administration should avoid “a semantic battle” over the economy and focus on how to fix it. Instead, economists turn to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a think tank not affiliated with the government, to make that call. “This is pressure that’s real, that we recognize, and it’s the president’s top priority to bring inflation down.” While two negative quarters has long been a rule of thumb for figuring out when the U.S. is in recession, economists also consider job growth and other areas of the economy when making that judgment. Consumer spending has also continued to rise throughout the decline in GDP, and wages rose 5.1 percent last month alone. Yellen acknowledged that households still face “great stress” from high inflation, which reached an annual rate of 9.1 percent in June, according to Labor Department data.

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FED EYES THE FREEZER AISLE — From NYT’s Jeanna Smialek and Emily Erdos: “If consumers and companies expect fast inflation to be a permanent feature of the American economy, they might begin to shift their behavior in ways that cause prices to keep rising. MAJOR HEALTH CARE COST DRIVER — From WSJ’s David Wainer: “The traveling-nurse market might finally be coming back down to earth. From NYT’s Mike Isaac: “On Wednesday, Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, reported a 1 percent decline in quarterly revenue from the previous year. MARKET REACTS — From Bloomberg’s Rita Nazareth: “About 85% of the S&P 500 companies rose, while the Nasdaq 100 soared over 4%, the most since November 2020. CBO PROJECTION — AP’s Josh Boak: “The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that the end of pandemic-era spending, fast economic growth and higher tax revenues have caused the federal debt this year to be lower than forecast. Debt-related pressures have faded somewhat in the short-term for lawmakers, even as they continue to loom as a troubling risk for future congresses and presidents.” Per POLITICO’s Burgess Everett the deal “ includes roughly $370 billion in energy and climate spending, $300 billion in deficit reduction, three years of subsidies for Affordable Care Act premiums, prescription drug reform and significant tax changes." But the nonpartisan office also includes a warning in its 30-year outlook about how debt will soon spiral upward to new highs that could ultimately imperil the U.S. economy. But he did NOT say that the Fed would back off or reverse course if the economy does start to significantly weaken — something markets increasingly seem to expect. “The public doesn't distinguish between core or headline inflation in their thinking,” he said. That may make the numbers appear worse than they are. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don't think the economy is in recession, many increasingly expect an economic downturn to ...

For the past two weeks, the yield on the two-year Treasury has exceeded the 10-year yield, suggesting that markets expect a recession soon. The clearest signal that a recession is under way, economists say, would be a steady rise in job losses and a surge in unemployment. The economy’s flashing signals — slowing growth with strong hiring — have put the Fed in a tough spot. Many analysts say, though, that comparing the 3-month yield to the 10-year has a better recession-forecasting track record. The Fed’s rapid rate hikes have raised the likelihood of recession in the next two years to nearly 50 percent, Goldman Sachs economists have said. Still, it can take 18 to 24 months for a downturn to arrive after the yield curve inverts. Still, in the past, it has been a useful measure. Yet the NBER typically doesn’t declare a recession until well after one has begun, sometimes for up to a year. If the economy were to lose jobs and the public were to grow more fearful, consumers would further reduce spending. Many economists expect that when GDP is revised later this year, the first quarter may even turn out to be positive. The pain is being felt disproportionately by lower-income and Black and Hispanic households, many of whom are struggling to pay for higher-cost essentials like food, gas and rent. And the unemployment rate has sunk to 3.6 percent, near a half-century low.

A second-straight quarterly decline in GDP meets a widely cited definition for recession. Experts say the economy isn't there quite yet.

But if you're investing for a long-term goal, such as retirement, now's a great time to continue to consistently invest in the market. "It's hard to call it a major economic contraction." If you're not worried about yourself, maybe you don't need to worry that much." The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is in charge of declaring recessions and expansions and likely won't make a judgment for months. "Great," you may be thinking. And when it does, GDP — a broad measure of economic activity — will only be one of the many factors the bureau's economists will consider.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday that a semantics debate over whether or not the U.S. economy is in a recession should be avoided as ...

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is moving to slow economic growth in a bid to contain sky-high inflation. Many things cause Americans to think we're in a recession, including rising gas prices and falling stocks. What she's saying: "We should avoid a semantic battle," Yellen said at a press conference.

Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession. And with good reason: 10 out of the last 10 times the US economy shrank for ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that he does not think the economy is currently in recession, but yield curves say something else. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in July for the third straight month. Household spending grew in June by 1.1%, up from a revised 0.3% increase in May, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. In the 11 times the Fed raised rates, the Fed has successfully avoided recession only three times. in the second quarter, but a slowdown in inventory accumulation removed a whopping 2 percentage points from output. It has yet to use the "recession" label. In May, there were about two open positions for every job seeker, along with historically low levels of layoffs. Consumer spending, the largest part of the US economy, is rising. Last year, businesses stocked up on goods to get ahead of supply chain woes and in anticipation of post-Covid consumer demand, but now they may be overstocked. It also signals that consumer demand could be weakening, another sign of this week, raising fears that the country has entered -- or will soon enter -- recession territory. Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession.

When the world's largest economy contracts for a second consecutive quarter, but the jobs market indicates resilience, Wall Street is divided on the ...

“Make no mistake, the data is showing a slowdown. But despite the numbers, we are not there yet.” “Consumer spending is still growing, albeit at a slower rate, and business investment was basically flat,” he said. The unemployment rate sits at an enviable 3.6 per cent. A total of 372,000 new jobs were added in June, far more than economists were anticipating. Were the data reported in simple quarter-on-quarter terms, it would have shrunk just 0.2 per cent.

But as of July 25 any mention of 'two negative consecutive quarters of GDP growth' was removed from this section. The page now also has a lock sign on the top ...

Wikipedia is a collaborative work in progress–yes, one that these days does not follow its own stated policy of neutrality–and there has been a flurry of back-and-forth editing on that article in recent days. These changes were made during the week that the White House published a blog querying the existing definition of a recession. Well they changed the definition of ‘vaccine’ so they could call the mRNA gene therapy a vaccine and pretend it was something safe and tested. I am the last one on earth who would support what the current POTUS is doing, or what Wiki does, but to be completely honest, they are correct in this case. White House officials have tried to limit discussions about a recession, suggesting that many parts of the economy remain strong. The page now also has a lock sign on the top right, which means the page cannot be edited.

If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job ...

To combat the doom and gloom, make a practice of staying positive. You want to tap into the people you know and trust for job leads. It's easy to succumb to the never-ending barrage of negative news. Twitter is a valuable medium to share your expertise and wisdom, attract an audience and let them know about your search efforts. The one thing you have is the ability to manage and drive your own career. Explain why you are seeking a new role and concisely share the responsibilities you held at your last couple of jobs. You need to know the differences, so you won’t get offended if a retained recruiter ignores your reach out. Send invitations to people who may have access to the jobs you desire. LinkedIn is an excellent way to start if you are a mid to senior-level, white-collar professional. It would be naive to think that the litany of woes, such as supply chain disruptions, inflation eating into your paycheck and savings, an endless war in Eastern Europe, constant political in-fighting and a steady flow of announced downsizing, won’t impact your job and career. If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job losses, businesses would pick up on their lead and engage in massive cost-cutting initiatives to remain solvent. It doesn’t matter if the United States is in a recession or not.

How are people coping at a time when the economy is struggling? The U.S. economy contracted for the second-straight quarter, which traditionally signals a ...

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Will there be a recession? And, if so, just how bad will it be for my finances? Those questions are looming large for Americans after the Federal Reserve ...

So instead of buying new equipment or hiring a full-time staffer to take advantage of a new business opportunity today, consider renting the equipment or bringing someone in as a contractor. Or, you might consider a new role that is less susceptible to layoffs when the economy is contracting. ... We'll be back to a place where it matters if your home is in good shape," Fratantoni said. What you can do is figure out what resources you have to handle a worst-case scenario, such as job loss or illness, Lima said. While it will become increasingly expensive to take out a mortgage as rates rise, buyers will face less competition for each property. And when it comes to deciding whether to put in an offer, "they may have a couple of days to think about it instead of hours," Fratantoni said. Improve your odds of staying employed: You may not be that highly sought after cybersecurity specialist that every Fortune 500 company wants. That means home sellers will no longer be able to price their properties 15% higher than what their neighbor's house just sold for. for the second quarter in a row. Companies have been reticent to let go of anybody," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of global outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. The White House and other government leaders are saying the economy remains healthy. That's created a lot of mixed signals.

Economic uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon. Here are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead.

She said that between January and June, her group distributed over $150,000 in emergency cash assistance to survivors who were having a harder time keeping the lights on and putting food on the table. If you are experiencing food or housing insecurity, look for non-profit or community organizations around you. “It’s a hectic existence,” Galeon said. Check out federal programs such as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps cover bills, and Lifeline, which can assist with phone bills. Most health insurance covers some type of mental health assistance. If you think a recession could destabilize yours, here are some things you can do to prepare. Her organization provides housing, food, and cash emergency assistance for people in the community. If a provider is competitive with other companies, there’s an even better chance of getting a discount, she added, Her advice is to keep an eye on the monthly fees or service charges that might eat into your savings. But there are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. But, she notes, some people’s immune systems are better able to recover than others.

President Joe Biden held two events Thursday where he made the case that the economy is not in a recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

"But if you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a rare, stand-alone news conference at the Treasury in between the president's two events. In the past few months, consumer and business confidence levels have plunged. "That is not what we are seeing right now," she said. The leaders of Corning, Marriott International, Bank of America, TIAA and Deloitte were all present, with Marriott's Tony Capuano and Corning's Wendell Weeks attending in person. The official arbiter of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research, likely won't rule for months. He then listed several companies planning to build factories in the U.S. before concluding, "that doesn't sound like a recession to me." Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter. - Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. "Let me just give you what the facts are in terms of the state of the economy," Biden said in a speech that was billed as remarks on the latest budget bill in Congress. "Number one, we have a record job market, and record unemployment of 3.6%, and businesses are investing in America at record rates." - On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter.

Most economists think the country is not in the throes of a major downturn, but the outlook is far from rosy.

Prices for gas, food and rent are soaring. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. The U.S. economy has shrunk for ...

If you are experiencing food or housing insecurity, look for non-profit or community organizations around you. The Associated Press receives support from Charles Schwab Foundation for educational and explanatory reporting to improve financial literacy. The Federal Trade Commission's Consumer Advice guide for Getting Out of Debt can help you make a plan. Check out federal programs such as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps cover bills, and Lifeline, which can assist with phone bills. But there are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead. Most health insurance covers some type of mental health assistance. If a provider is competitive with other companies, there’s an even better chance of getting a discount, she added. Some states offer additional local programs for their residents. From housing support and food banks to utility assistance, non-profit organizations around the country can help. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. Knowing how much you spend every month is key. Ma recommends sitting down and writing how much you spend day-to-day.

GDP scare headlines are misleading, and other more telling measures reveal a Biden economy that's still growing. by Robert Shapiro July 29, 2022 July 29, ...

That growth even outpaced the best periods of recent expansions: Employment rose 1.4 percent in the first two quarters of 1997, 1 percent in the first two quarters of 2005, 1.1 percent in the first two quarters of 2014, and 1 percent in the first two quarters of 2018. Finally, this year’s accelerating inflation contributed to the drop in real GDP by offsetting a growing share of production. This week’s BEA report also shows that real fixed business investment fell at a 0.1 percent rate in the second quarter. Even as the economy’s fundamentals generally remain sound, there is a danger that the Fed’s interest rate hikes may prove too large, dampening demand and employment too much. If employment, consumption, and business investment don’t point to recession, why did real GDP growth go south in the past two quarters? For example, real consumer spending grew 1.8 percent and 1 percent in the first and second quarters. That’s slower than in 2021 but nothing like the first two quarters of the 1990–91 and 2007–09 recessions, when real consumer spending contracted. And measured against the second quarter of 2021, real fixed business investment grew by 3.5 percent. Similarly, over the first two quarters of the recessions of 2001 and 2007–09, employment fell respectively by 761,000 and 426,000 positions, or 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent. Over the first six months of the 1990–91 recession, employment fell by 690,000, or 0.6 percent. That sounds dispiriting, but behind the headline numbers, the basic growth elements provide a more encouraging gauge of the economy’s path and prospects. Those criteria point to continuing growth in the United States.

While it's likely we are already in an as-yet-undeclared recession, it's a very weird one if so. I have lived through quite a few of them and I don't recall ...

At the end of August, I get to check off one of my bucket list fantasies and go salmon fishing in British Columbia at a private camp, reachable only by helicopter. The 1997 Asian debt crisis and 1998 Long-Term Capital Management bailout confirmed we had a new kind of Fed. So I think Chancellor is right to pin productivity declines on the Fed, at least in part. If a company now needs, for example, 105 workers to produce the same output that used to be possible with 100 workers, it is negative productivity growth. But it may be relevant that this is about when the “Greenspan Put” went from a novel surprise to something traders simply expected. This is the largest decline in quarterly productivity since the third quarter of 1947, when the measure decreased 11.7 percent. The Fed started slashing rates in September 2007 and the market bottomed in March 2009.” “As we discussed in the first piece in this series, the current macroeconomic climate bears a notable similarity to the climate preceding the recession of 2007–2009. This is also the only recession in recent history that resembles (in depth, duration, and pace) those of previous high-inflation eras in which the Fed tightened into the contraction (e.g., 1973 and 1981). As Figure 2 illustrates, the recessions of 1973, 1981, and 2007 are a cluster by themselves with respect to duration and severity. We are in the thick of earnings season and reports from retailers aren’t good. We have a robust and tight labor market—with solid wage increases a highlight of the last several years. We may not see the kind of cyclical unemployment that was normal in past recessions. Note that the recessions in red are when the Fed was actually tightening into or during a recession. Whether the economy is in recession now or enters one soon, this isn’t the usual boom-bust pattern; it’s more of an intentional slowdown.

The official arbiters of US recessions aren't close to making a call that a downturn is under way, and may end up concluding 2022's first half was part of a ...

The committee declares a turning point with a lag of 11 months on average.” “A recession is a sustained and broad-based decline in economic activity, across many sectors of the economy. It’s “very unlikely” a recession started in the first quarter and the data is more mixed on the second quarter, he said. The NBER does include GDP as a factor in its deliberations, but averages it with the less-followed metric of gross domestic income. He declines to comment as a matter of policy on the current economy. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two quarterly contractions in gross domestic product is conclusive of a recession.

Days ahead of the release of the latest numbers gauging economic health, President Biden had insisted that low unemployment numbers, record job growth and ...

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The official arbiters of US recessions aren't close to making a call that a downturn is under way, and may end up concluding 2022's first half was part of a ...

The committee declares a turning point with a lag of 11 months on average.” “A recession is a sustained and broad-based decline in economic activity, across many sectors of the economy. It’s “very unlikely” a recession started in the first quarter and the data is more mixed on the second quarter, he said. The NBER does include GDP as a factor in its deliberations, but averages it with the less-followed metric of gross domestic income. He declines to comment as a matter of policy on the current economy. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two quarterly contractions in gross domestic product is conclusive of a recession.