CPI

2022 - 7 - 13

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Image courtesy of "USA TODAY"

Inflation hits new 40-year high as gas, food rent costs surge. Another ... (USA TODAY)

Inflation reaches new 40-year high amid surging gas, food, rent prices. The Federal Reserve is likely to approve another big rate hike this month.

And beef and veal prices decreased by 2.3%. Last month, cereal prices rose 2.5% and were up 14.2% from a year ago. Barclays economist Pooja Sriram, however, believes higher fertilizer costs for farmers could keep grocery prices fairly high throughout the year. Grocery prices rose 1% and 12.2% over the past 12 months. There are signs inflation is poised to ease this year. Bread was up 1.6% from the prior month and climbed 10.8% annually.

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Image courtesy of "The Wall Street Journal"

June CPI Report Live Updates: U.S. Inflation Rate Reached 9.1% (The Wall Street Journal)

U.S. inflation reached 9.1% in June, its highest rate in nearly 41 years. The consumer-price index's reading for June was higher than May's annual rate of ...

Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, jumped immediately after the CPI data was released. That was above the 0.5% increase forecast by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.\n\nThe yield on the 10-year note is still down from its 2022 peak of nearly 3.5%, reflecting recent evidence of slowing economic growth and even some signs of moderating inflation pressures identified outside of CPI reports.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as price ... (CNBC)

The consumer price index increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 5.9%, ...

"The challenge we face today is it's not that 1-3 percent anymore, it's 10 to 20 percent depending on what cost bucket you're talking about." Much of inflation rise came from gasoline prices, which increased 11.2% on the month and just shy of 60% for the 12-month period. Energy prices surged 7.5% on the month and were up 41.6% on a 12-month basis. Airline fares were one of the few areas seeing a decline, falling 1.8% in June though still up 34.1% from a year ago. How do we look at the costs coming in?" That has come as wheat futures have fallen 8% since July 1, while soybeans are down 6% and corn is off 6.6% during the same period. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981. Corporate profits, however, have increased just 1.3% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2021, when inflation took hold. But I do think we're on an upswing." Traders upped their bets on the pace of interest rate increases ahead. "For probably 10 to 15 years before the pandemic, the industry fell into a stable routine where costs up across the board somewhere between 1 to 3 percent a year. Electricity costs rose 1.7% and 13.7%, respectively.

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

CPI Report Live Updates: Inflation Remained High in June (The New York Times)

The Consumer Price Index rose 9.1 percent from a year ago, a 40-year high that defied expectations of moderating price pressures.

Higher prices at least aren’t deterring shoppers from buying drinks and snacks, PepsiCo said in its earnings report on Tuesday, leading the company to raise its forecast for revenue this year, citing the “resilience” of consumer spending. A so-called “core” inflation index, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices to get a better sense of underlying price pressures, picked up by 5.9 percent in June from a year earlier. That rapid-fire policy response comes as the Fed gets nervous that high inflation could become a more permanent part of the economy if it is not decisively counteracted. Food prices continued to be one of the largest contributors to inflation, rising 10.4 percent in the year leading up to June, the biggest annual increase since 1981. Biden administration officials are bracing for another jump in inflation, but warning that the report, which is for June, will not reflect the recent decline in gasoline prices that has been driven by falling global oil prices. “The Fed is going to have to slow the economy materially and in a much faster fashion than if inflation was lower or at least starting to respond,” Mr. Ryan said. It’s a clear sign that despite a small moderation in core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, investors are betting that the Fed will remain aggressive in its attempts to pull inflation down by raising interest rates. Many central bankers have been clear that they want to make another 0.75-point increase in July, and that they hope to raise rates into the neighborhood of 3.5 percent by the end of the year. Food prices rose 10.4 percent in the year leading up to June, the biggest annual increase since 1981. For example, the European Central Bank is planning to raise rates for the first time in more than a decade next week, by a quarter-point. Inflation remained painfully elevated in June, with the Consumer Price Index climbing 9.1 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1981. The inflation index including food and gas could slow down in July’s data because prices at the pump have moderated in recent weeks.

President Biden Statement on CPI Inflation in June | The White House (The White House)

While today's headline inflation reading is unacceptably high, it is also out-of-date. Energy alone comprised nearly half of the monthly increase in.

I will continue my historic release of oil from our strategic petroleum reserve. Oil and gas companies must not use this moment as an excuse for profiting by not passing along savings at the pump. Here is what I will do: First, I will continue to do everything I can to bring down the price of gas. Today’s data does not reflect the full impact of nearly 30 days of decreases in gas prices, that have reduced the price at the pump by about 40 cents since mid-June. Those savings are providing important breathing room for American families. Energy alone comprised nearly half of the monthly increase in inflation.

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Image courtesy of "advisorperspectives.com"

Consumer Price Index: June Headline at 9.06% (advisorperspectives.com)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at ...

The food index increased 10.4 percent for the 12-months ending June, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1981. The all items index increased 9.1 percent for the 12 months ending June, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1981. The energy index rose 41.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1980. The food index rose 1.0 percent in June, as did the food at home index. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 9.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food being the largest contributors.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

June CPI, ETFs, Oil, And Crypto - Bloomberg (Bloomberg)

Sean O'Hara, President of Pacer ETFs, discusses the award-winning COWZ ETF and ETF investing amid inflation and rising interest rates.

Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Economist of Hugh Johnson Economics, talks about the economy and markets in 2022. Vinh Vuong, Chairman and CEO at Garrison Fathom, talks about crypto regulation, blockchain technology, and the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto. Peter McNally, Global Lead - Industrials, Materials, and Energy at Third Bridge, talks about airlines, travel, oil, and Delta earnings.

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Image courtesy of "The Australian Financial Review"

US CPI: Reactions as prices rise at an ever faster pace (The Australian Financial Review)

“While core inflation pressures remain uncomfortably high, the outlook points to some inflation deceleration from here. In particular, energy price inflation is ...

“If consumer expectations for inflation climb higher, the possibility of a 1 per cent interest rate move will certainly be discussed by Fed members. AE lowered its headline GDP growth estimates to 1.2 per cent in Q2, 1.7 per cent in Q3, 1.6 per cent in Q4, and 0.7 per cent for 2022 (Q4/Q4).” This would put the Y/Y headline metric back at the 40-year high of 6.6 per cent last seen in March. “The Fed’s ‘unconditional’ commitment to lower inflation will lead officials to continue to aggressively front-load rate increases. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index, with its consumer 5-year inflation expectations report, takes on increasing importance. That said, we would be looking for some relief in energy prices in July given the recent trend in energy markets. ‘Food away from home’ (restaurants) inflation accelerated for a second consecutive month to 0.9 per cent, registering its fastest monthly pace since the 1980s.” Our tentative forecast for July is 0.2 per cent, and we look for 0.4 per cent in both August and September.” We will finalise this forecast after the PPI data is released next week.” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist, Allianz Investment Management: “Looking into the data, inflation remains embedded within multiple segments of the economy even when stripping away food and energy prices. “While core inflation pressures remain uncomfortably high, the outlook points to some inflation deceleration from here. Our tentative answer is no, with the exception of the surge in rents, which probably can run for a while yet.”

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