Oil price

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday with the U.S. benchmark falling below $100 as recession fears grow, sparking fears that an economic slowdown will cut demand for ...

Goldman has a $140 target on Brent. "We're at critically low inventories across the space," he said. "Recessions don't have a great track record of killing demand. The national average has since pulled back amid oil's decline, and sat at $4.80 on Tuesday. At one point WTI slid more than 10%, trading as low as $97.43 per barrel. "[T]he oil market appears to be homing in on some recent weakening in apparent demand for gasoline and diesel," the firm wrote in a note to clients.

Oil prices dropped as concerns over a possible recession affecting fuel demand eclipsed supply disruption fears.The latest hike in gas and fuel prices have ...

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 15 cents, or 0.1%, to $108.28 a barrel, from Friday's close. The strike is expected to reduce oil and gas output by 89,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), of which gas output makes up 27,500 boepd, Norwegian producer Equinor has said. In South Korea, inflation in June hit a near 24-year high, adding to concerns of slowing economic growth and oil demand. "Oil is still struggling to break out from its current recessionary malaise as the market pivots away from inflation to economic despair," Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a note. Oil prices slipped on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, as concerns of a possible global recession curtailing fuel demand outweighed supply disruption fears, highlighted by an expected production cut in Norway. The latest hike in gas and fuel prices have also added to worries about a recession

But while Saudi Arabia lifted the August price for its flagship crude grade to Asia, Arab Light, by $2.80 per barrel, the price of Brent and WTI crude fell ...

But while Saudi Arabia lifted the August price for its flagship crude grade to Asia, Arab Light, by $2.80 per barrel, the price of Brent and WTI crude fell sharply. Also on Tuesday , a Citi report suggested that oil prices could fall to as low as $65 per barrel by the end of this year and as low as $45 by the end of next year if the world enters a recession and demand tanks. The price of WTI crude oil slipped $9.01 per barrel by 12:37 pm ET below $100 per barrel to $99.42 (-8.31%), while Brent crude sank $10.41 per barrel to $103.10 (-9.17%). Saudi Arabia sets the pricing trend for most of the Middle Eastern oil exporters and is typically seen as a bellwether for the state of the oil market. The plummeting price action comes as Saudi Arabia announced a price hike for all its crude grades in August to its prized market, Asia. Saudi Arabia’s price hike comes mostly as expected by the market on strong refining margins and expectations of strong demand. Crude oil prices fell by nearly 7% on Tuesday as fears of a recession mount—a scenario that could put a dent in oil demand.

Oil steadied near $100 a barrel as banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said a plunge driven by fears a recession will hurt demand was overdone, ...

The plunge suggests that gasoline prices could be poised for a sharp descent, though there could be a multiweek lag.

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price is suffering a blow on Wednesday. Its struggles come amid a major downturn in oil prices.

Interestingly, the Santos share price is only the third worst-performing ASX 200 energy share today. The share price of Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) takes out that crown. The share price of ASX 200 oil and gas giant Santos is taking a tumble on Wednesday after global oil prices plummeted overnight. For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is currently down 0.55% while the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) has slumped 5.39%. The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price is suffering a blow on Wednesday. The company’s struggles come amid a major downturn in oil prices. At the time of writing, the Santos share price is $7.12, 4.81% lower than its previous close.

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX:BPT), Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS), and other energy shares are falling after oil prices crashed lower...

For example, a note out of Citi warns that yesterday’s decline could be a sign of things to come if the global economy falls into a recession. At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is down a sizeable 5.5%. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price fell more than 10% before eventually closing the session 8.2% lower at US$99.50 per barrel.

Despite serious supply problems in the market, oil prices crashed on Tuesday morning due to renewed recession fears and the prospect of demand destruction.

Yet all of this is not enough to break the cycle of fear. A look at today’s stock market is enough to understand the main concern for oil markets right now, recession. Russia Finds Light Oil in Offshore Arctic. Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft (MCX:ROSN) has announced a more than 600 million barrel discovery of light sweet crude in the Pechora Sea in the Arctic, claiming that it has the competence to go it alone. JP Morgan Warns of $380 Oil After Price Cap. Analysts from US investment bank JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) warned that in case a price cap is introduced on Russian crude, the subsequent (deliberate) cutting of oil production could send oil prices more than tripling to $380 per barrel. Whilst most assessments expected recession to kick in later this year, its first signs are already emerging with European economies potentially entering a recession in Q3. Seeing Brent futures losing a hefty 10% today and dropping close to $102 per barrel, one would perhaps fail to notice that supply remains very much an issue – Libya’s almost complete degradation into an all-out internecine conflict and Norway’s offshore production seeing the first massive strike campaign of recent years have narrowed potential supply sources even further. Uneven Outlook Scares Oil Permabulls. Amidst a deteriorating economic outlook, the past week has seen another decrease in long positions held in petroleum contracts by investors, though the sale of 9 million barrels last week is much milder than the hefty 71 million barrels in the week to 21 June.

Brent crude futures rose as much as $3.08, or 2.9%, to $105.85 a barrel in early trade after plunging 9.5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily drop since March. It ...

Worries about a recession, however, have continued to weigh on markets. More G10 central banks raised interest rates in June than in any month for at least two decades, Reuters calculations showed. Brent crude futures rose as much as $3.08, or 2.9%, to $105.85 a barrel in early trade after plunging 9.5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily drop since March. It was last up 92 cents, or 0.9%, at $103.69 a barrel at 0243 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a session high of $102.14 a barrel, up $2.64, or 2.7%, after closing below $100 for the first time since late April. It was last up 46 cents, or 0.5%, at $99.96 a barrel. Oil prices rose as much as nearly 3% on Wednesday before paring some gains as investors piled back into the market after a heavy rout in the previous session, with supply concerns returning to the fore even as worries about a global recession linger. - Brent crude futures rose as much as $3.08, or 2.9%, to $105.85 a barrel in early trade after plunging 9.5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily drop since March. It was last up 92 cents, or 0.9%, at $103.69 a barrel at 0243 GMT. - U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a session high of $102.14 a barrel, up $2.64, or 2.7%, after closing below $100 for the first time since late April. It was last up 46 cents, or 0.5%, at $99.96 a barrel. - Oil prices rose as much as nearly 3% on Wednesday before paring some gains as investors piled back into the market after a heavy rout in the previous session, with supply concerns returning to the fore even as worries about a global recession linger.

U.S. gasoline refineries have been operating at near-maximum utilization levels as demand continues to climb.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the administration forecast that U.S. refinery utilization would be relatively high this summer in response to strong wholesale prices for petroleum products. The EIA expects America’s refinery utilization to reach a monthly average level of 96% twice this summer, “near the upper limits of what refiners can consistently maintain.” In the week of June 24, the average U.S. refinery utilization rate stood at 95%, with the East Coast and Gulf Coast rates at 98%, per EIA’s latest weekly report. It should also be noted that operable capacity across America’s refineries is now 17.944 million bpd, down by 1 million bpd compared to 18.976 million bpd two years ago. As these trends continue, drivers will likely continue to see relief at the pump,” AAA said last week, just before the July 4 holiday weekend. If one or more of those expected major hurricanes make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where a lot of refining capacity is located, some refiners could be forced to preventively shut down or could be at risk of flooding, which would additionally tighten the fuel market in the United States. Analysts are of the same opinion, too. The trend of high gasoline production is set to continue in the near future as refiners run at full tilt to take advantage of the high refining margins. Refiners are running crude processing at full tilt. Refinery utilization at 95% is at its highest since before COVID—September 2019. “Gas demand currently sits at 8.93 million b/d, which is lower than last year’s rate of 9.11 million b/d at the end of June. On the other hand, total domestic gasoline stocks increased by 2.6 million bbl to 221.6 million bbl.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.62, or 1.58%, to $104.39 a barrel at 0839 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.04, or 1.05%, to $100.54 a ...

read more Brent's six-month market structure was in steep backwardation of $15.12 a barrel, up by just 70 cents from the previous day. read more read more read more

For oil, the historical evidence suggests that oil demand goes negative only in the worst global recessions. But oil prices fall in all recessions to ...

If that’s the case, oil demand may be weakened from the downturn, but it should still see annual growth. But oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost,” Citi analysts said in a note. "Unless the war in Ukraine spills over to the rest of Europe, the next recession looks more likely to resemble that of 1990-1991 than of 2007-2008. West Texas Intermediate crude, the US oil benchmark, slid 8.4 per cent, or $9.14, to trade at $99.29 per barrel. In the meantime, Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that a reported proposal from Japan to cap the price of Russian oil at around half its current price would lead to significantly less oil on the market and could push prices above $300-400 a barrel. The contract last traded under $100 on May 11.

With crude prices under pressure from growing fears of a global recession while supply side threats hang over the market, the near term price forecasts for ...

06/06/2022 06/06/2022 The bank only gave the recession scenario a 10% chance of occurring, however. In May, the producer group fell short of its production targets by about 2.7 million b/d, according to its own assessments. For 2023, the Brent forecast gap widens further. The rout was the third-largest absolute price drop since Brent futures trading started in 1988.

HOUSTON — The global benchmark for oil dropped below $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since late April as fears of a looming recession spread ...

Motorists are paying $1.65 a gallon more on average than a year ago. If Europe runs short of natural gas next winter, utilities will be forced to burn more oil, which could crimp supplies and raise crude prices. There is a sharp divergence of opinion among experts about where the oil price will go in the weeks and months ahead.

Citi may not see a recession on the horizon, but the fear of a recession has cooled oil prices this week, with WTI now trading well under $100 per barrel at ...

The price is too high,” Morse said on Wednesday. “There’s no evidence that we’re going to see this summer surge in driving and summer surge in demand. Yesterday, a Citigroup report suggested that oil prices could tumble to $65 per barrel by the end of this year and to $45 per barrel by the end of next year, based on a global recession and lack of market intervention by OPEC+. Citi noted, however, that this case was not its base case, and that it did not foresee a global recession.

Oil prices have plummeted to below a psychologically important level of $100 as analysts grow increasingly worried about weakening demand.

One such bull is J.P. Morgan Chase, who last week warned global oil prices could climb to a "stratospheric" $380/bbl if G7 nations succeed in imposing caps on the price of Russian oil and prompt Vladimir Putin to inflict retaliatory production cuts. Citi analysts have warned that crude prices could collapse to $65/bbl this year in the event of a recession. Meanwhile, Harold Hamm, majority owner of shale exploration giant Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), has gone on an all-out war to buy back the company's minority stake. Smart investors appear to agree: three energy gurus led by Warren Buffett himself have chosen to follow the Oracle's time-tested market wisdom of being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. The Hamm Family collectively owns 83% of the total outstanding shares of common stock. However, such a drastic reduction would be bad news for oil consumers as it would push Brent crude prices to $380/bbl. In effect, Buffett now owns 25% of OXY, counting his warrants and total shares purchased. OPEC+ producers have limited room to increase output significantly, and so are unable to provide much relief to the market," says ING head of commodity strategy Warren Patterson. Oil prices nosedived alongside the broader market on Tuesday, with U.S. crude dipping to the psychologically important level of $100/bbl as growing recession fears coupled with concerns over weakening demand outweigh a fundamentally tight supply market. Between June 17 and June 22, Buffett bought 9 million shares of Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) for around $56 per share, which compares favorably with his previous purchase of OXY in the $50-58 range. At one point, WTI crumbled more than 10% to trade as low as $97.43. Meanwhile, front-month Brent crude fell by even more, losing 9.4% to $102.77/bbl, its lowest settlement since May 10. "The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports," "It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia's side,"JPM analysts wrote.

Argentina is breaking records in oil production, with shale oil and natural gas output from the Vaca Muerta leading the charge.

The attractiveness of investing in the Vaca Muerta is enhanced by the high-quality light sweet crude oil produced by the formation. The characteristics of the oil produced in the Vaca Muerta augment the attractiveness of investing in the shale formation. This is particularly so in a world where decarbonizing the economy and reducing pollution are priorities, thereby making it critical for energy companies to reduce their carbon footprints. In 2018 the Secretariat of Energy announced that the Vaca Muerta contained unconventional resources totaling 27 billion barrels of oil and 802 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Soaring energy prices, with the international benchmark Brent gaining a whopping 37% since the start of 2022 to be selling for over $107 per barrel, are adding considerable momentum to the Vaca Muerta’s oil boom and foreign energy investment. Elevated breakeven prices, estimated to be as high as $55 per barrel, in an operating environment weighed down by low oil prices deterred capital expenditures, but the recent oil price rally is acting as a powerful tailwind for investment. Buenos Aires’ latest data indicates that the Vaca Muerta is finally delivering on the considerable promise shown by the formation over a decade ago when discovered by Spanish energy major Repsol. The US EIA estimated in 2013 that the Vaca Muerta contains recoverable hydrocarbon resources totaling 308 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and over 16 billion barrels of oil. The exploitation of the Vaca Muerta also has the potential to ease the current global energy crisis where underinvestment by oil companies due to the 2015 oil price crash and pandemic along with the invasion of Ukraine has led to chronic energy shortages and soaring prices. Those numbers include the formation’s proven reserves of 2.1 billion barrels of oil and 11.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This tremendous production growth can be attributed to the successful exploitation of the Vaca Muerta shale. The exploitation of the Vaca Muerta is vital to the recovery of Argentina’s long-running economic crisis which has seen the country default nine times on its sovereign debt since independence.

Crude oil has continued to slide after Fed meeting minutes pushed Treasury yields higher, boosting fears of recession. Will WTI find a base?

It highlights a willingness by the market to pay more to have immediate delivery, rather than having to wait. The latest sell off in crude prices has been attributed to recession fears and higher rates. Global supply constraints remain an issue, with the West looking to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil. Meanwhile, JP Morgan have reported that in the worst-case scenario, crude could get as high US$ 380 bbl next year. The US Dollar has surged across the board against currencies and commodities alike. This saw Treasury yields lift again across the curve.

Oil prices crashed overnight, with Brent down more than 10% from the morning highs on mounting global recession fears. However, Goldman Sachs believes oil's ...

The global economy is still growing with the rise in oil demand this year set to significantly outperform GDP growth, buttressed by the post-COVID re-opening in Asia-Pacific as well as the resumption in international travel. As a result, we still expect that global oil demand will rise by a larger than seasonal 2.3 mb/d from 2Q22 to 3Q22 (at $120/bbl). This is what the oil market needs to solve for, with this demand rebound greater than the expected increase in supply in coming months. China of 5% and (2) 0.9 mb/d of price driven demand destruction (based on global retail prices at a consumer Brent equivalent level of $170/bbl in June and our estimated 4% price elasticity for road fuels1). The $25/bbl decline in consumer fuel prices from June to July – based on the latest move in both refinery margins and Brent prices – would in turn support total oil demand by 0.8 mb/d based such an elasticity, with governments set to further stimulate demand through gasoline tax cuts. This is consistent with our tracking of oil fundamentals, with an estimated global c.1 mb/d deficit in June, with China back to drawing inventories as well. The fall in oil prices started at the US equity market open and coincided with a broad-based decline in other commodities and risky assets. We believe this move has overshot – while risks of a future recession are growing, key to our bullish view is that the current oil deficit remains unresolved, with demand destruction through high prices the only solver left as still declining inventories approach critically low levels.