The bear

Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted ...

Note that in the charts above, we've color-coded the rally since the 2009 low in blue, implying the start of a secular bull. Note that in this chart we've followed the general practice in demographic research of multiplying the percent by 100 (e.g., the estimated mid-year 2016 elderly dependency ratio is 25.7% x 100 = 25.7). In the chart above, the elderly cohort (red series) is dramatically increasing in numbers. Market historians call these "secular" bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum "long period of time" (in contrast to aeternus "eternal" — the type of bull market we fantasize about). Ed maintains that even with the lofty market highs, the current cycle has been the best cyclical bull inside of a secular bear. The latest monthly average of daily closes is 118% above trend.