La Nina

2022 - 6 - 22

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Image courtesy of "Echonetdaily"

La Niña has ended but may yet return (Echonetdaily)

Dr Andrew Watkins is the head of long-range forecasting at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Whilst the 2021-22 La Niña in the tropical Pacific has ended, ...

This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter-spring rainfall for Australia.’ Rainfall across eastern and southern Australia is typically above average during winter and spring during a negative IOD. Currently, the IOD is neutral.

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Image courtesy of "Climate Council"

La Niña could return by year's end, Climate Council urges ... (Climate Council)

“The former Federal Government failed to prepare communities for the east coast flooding disaster earlier this year, despite being warned. The new Labor ...

We would expect to see a big shift in this ratio to see a much bigger focus on preparedness given the escalating risk of climate-fuelled disasters.” The previous Government has failed to implement many of them, but this must be a priority for our new Government. The risk of extreme rainfall and flooding is also increasing with climate change.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

La Niña has ended but there's a 50-50 chance another will form by ... (The Guardian)

Most of the observations and surveyed climate models of ocean temperatures and winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate neutral El Niño-Southern ...

This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter-spring rainfall for Australia.” “We’ve only seen that three times since the middle of last century.” It’s already received more than 126% of its average annual rainfall this year.

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Image courtesy of "Blue Mountains Gazette"

La Nina ends, but could be back soon (Blue Mountains Gazette)

Meteorologists observed changes in trade winds, sea surface temperatures, and temperatures beneath the surface in the Pacific. Those factors indicated a move ...

About half the models the bureau surveys suggest a potential return to La Nina in spring, and back-to-back La Ninas is also not uncommon, Dr Watkins said. "But we also are aware that the models are suggesting we could go back into La Nina later in the year, and hence we've moved to La Nina watch," Dr Watkins said. "We also see quite warm temperatures in the oceans around Northern Australia and off Western Australia," Dr Watkins said.

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Image courtesy of "NEWS.com.au"

Devastating twist to La Nina's end (NEWS.com.au)

The La Nina climate driver, which has been the key factor behind much of Australia's weather woes over the last two years, has finally ended.

Just like we have had for the last two years. Stream more news on the environment with Flash. 25+ news channels in 1 place. The actual figure may have been much higher. During a La Nina phase, cool waters from the depths of the Pacific Ocean are hauled up to the surface in the central and eastern equatorial region. New to Flash? Try 1 month free. La Nina has ended – but there’s a sting in the tail

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Image courtesy of "ABC News"

La Niña officially over, but Bureau of Meteorology says it might be ... (ABC News)

The weather pattern that drove record rain and floods in eastern Australia this year has ended, but models suggest it may soon return.

"A third consecutive La Niña and could increase the chances of rain for an already saturated east coast," she said. - A climatologist says a third consecutive La Niña could increase the chances of rain for an "already saturated" east coast A triple La Niña has only happened three times before – in 1954-57, 1973-76 and 1998-2001 – according ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes climatologist Zoe Gillett.

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Image courtesy of "South Coast Register"

The sodden La Nina on hold for now but wet weather forecast to ... (South Coast Register)

ACM national rural property writer based in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria. Career journalist. Multi award winner. More from Multimedia.

This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter-spring rainfall for Australia." "Rainfall predictions suggest Australia will continue to see above-average rainfall over the coming months," the WMO said in the global weather update. "A La Nina watch does not change the outlook of above average rainfall for most of Australia over coming months," Dr Watkins said. The official status for La Nina is now on "watch" which the bureau said is likely to be the pattern over winter. Plus the long-term predictions of above average rains for the rest of the year are still current. The third year of the La Nina influence has also been credited for some of the best farming seasons for decades.

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Image courtesy of "7NEWS.com.au"

Bureau of Meteorology declares La Niña weather event finally over ... (7NEWS.com.au)

Meteorologists observed changes in trade winds, sea surface temperatures, and temperatures beneath the surface in the Pacific. Those factors indicated a move ...

And this helps put the tropical Pacific into a La Niña-like state. The authors found the collapse of this system – called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation – would shift the Earth’s climate to a more La Niña-like state. About half the models the bureau surveys suggest a potential return to La Niña in spring, and back-to-back La Niñas is also not uncommon, Dr Watkins said. “A three-year La Nina is less common, and we’ve only seen that three times since the middle of last century.” “But we also are aware that the models are suggesting we could go back into La Niña later in the year, and hence we’ve moved to La Niña watch,” Dr Watkins said. The shift to La Nina watch does not change the outlook of above average rainfall for most of Australia over the coming months, with several other climate drivers affecting the country, Dr Watkins said.

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Image courtesy of "The Age"

Weather bureau declares La Nina over but wet conditions to persist (The Age)

The La Nina weather pattern that brought heavy rains and floods in 2021-22 has ended but there remains a 50 per cent chance it will return this year.

“About half of the models we survey suggest we could return to La Nina in the spring,” he said. However, Watkins said models now suggested there was about a 50 per cent chance of a La Nina system returning later this year and the bureau had shifted its forecast for the system to a “watch” status. The La Nina weather system that brought record-breaking rainfall and floods to Australia during the past year is over, but forecasters say there is a 50/50 chance the system could return later this year.

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Image courtesy of "Nature.com"

Rare 'triple' La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the ... (Nature.com)

An ongoing La Niña event that has contributed to flooding in eastern Australia and exacerbated droughts in the United States and East Africa could persist into ...

Michael Mann, a climatologist at Pennsylvania State University in State College, has also argued 2 that climate change will both slow the AMOC and create more La Niña-like conditions. “More and more people are taking this a bit seriously that maybe the models are biased,” because they don’t capture this cold eastern Pacific water, says Seager. But it could also be that the IPCC models are missing something big, says L’Heureux, “which is a more serious issue”. Seager thinks the models are indeed wrong, and that the planet will experience more La Niña-like patterns in future 3. Researchers have noticed a shift in the ENSO in recent decades: the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that strong El Niño and La Niña events have been more frequent and stronger since 1950 than they were in the centuries before that, but the panel couldn’t tell whether this was caused by natural variability or by climate change. The occurrence of two consecutive La Niña winters in the Northern Hemisphere is common, but having three in a row is relatively rare. “We are stacking the odds higher for these triple events coming along,” says Matthew England, a physical oceanographer at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. England and others are now working to reconcile discrepancies between climate data and the output of major climate models — efforts that could clarify what's in store for the planet.

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