RBA

2022 - 6 - 6

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Image courtesy of "The Conversation AU"

Why the RBA shouldn't obsess over inflation when it sets interest rates (The Conversation AU)

Later today, everyone expects the Reserve Bank board will push up its cash interest rate for the second consecutive month. Why? According to the board's ...

But the nail is hard to hit. We’ve seen this “zero lower bound” operating in Australia and elsewhere for years now. In the 1990s, the main argument for a low target rate of inflation was the need to break expectations created by decades of high inflation. The correct response to the huge expansion in the amount of money in the economy during the crisis is to accept a once-off increase in prices and wages, as well as incomes indexed to wages and prices, such as pensions. The result is that wages, as measured by the Bureau of Statistics wage price index, grew by only 2.4% in the year to March, well behind inflation of 5.1%. Once the current spike in inflation is over, we need to reconsider both the target range and the whole idea of inflation targeting.

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Image courtesy of "NEWS.com.au"

Three words reveal months of pain ahead (NEWS.com.au)

The Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to hike the official cash rate for the second month in a row today, marking the first back-to-back rate rise in 12 ...

He said the price slump was caused less by the RBA’s decision and more as a side effect of inflationary pressures and buyers growing more cautious in anticipation of a rate rise which caused a “dramatic slowdown in growth that has culminated in a fall”. In this month’s RBA Cash Rate Survey by comparison site Finder, 86 per cent of economists and experts expect a hike, while 28 per cent believe there will be at least two cash rate increases before the end of the year. But that comes with a risk of its own, with KPMG’s senior economist Sarah Hunter telling The Guardian that while the RBA must bring the cash rate to a normal level “as soon as practically possible”, it must do so “without creating ‘climb shock’ by moving rates too fast, too soon”. They are not words that are seen when things are looking rosy, or when a quick turnaround is on the horizon, which is why some insiders expect the cash rate to climb even higher to 2.5 per cent by the end of the year, in a desperate bid to bring inflation back under control. A quick read through the Board’s May meeting minutes shows that more rate hikes are inevitable, with the RBA forecasting the cash rate will increase to around 1.75 per cent by the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to hike the official cash rate for the second month in a row today, marking the first back-to-back rate rise in 12 years.

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Image courtesy of "Michael West News"

RBA to at least match May cash rate rise - Michael West (Michael West News)

Home buyers will need to brace for a further rise in their loan repayments with another increase in the official cash rate expected when the Reserve Bank of ...

At the May board meeting the RBA did discuss the option of a 40 basis point increase as its first rate rise since November 2010. Economists’ views range from another 25 basis point rise – a size the RBA has described as “returning to normal operating procedures” – to 40 or even 50 basis points. There are mixed opinions as to the size of this increase following the rise in the cash rate to 0.35 per cent last month, from a record low 0.1 per cent, the first hike in over a decade.

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Image courtesy of "DailyFX"

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Awaits RBA Decision (DailyFX)

All eyes will be on the upcoming RBA monetary policy decision with little doubt that the Bank will continue to tighten monetary policy.

Data shows 55.82% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.26 to 1. As it stands, money markets are pricing 30bps worth of tightening, therefore, should the RBA hike by 40bps to 0.75%, this would likely propel the Aussie higher amid a hawkish surprise. That said, with growth remaining strong, as shown in the recent Q1 GDP report and terms of trade at a record, this would argue for a 40bps hike at this week’s policy meeting.

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Image courtesy of "Business Research and Insights"

AMW: RBA: the top ten reasons we expect today's interest rate ... (Business Research and Insights)

The Bank still wishes to see Australian wages accelerate so that inflation is sustainably at target once pandemic and war shock effects wear off. There are ...

In today’s weekly, we outline the top ten reasons why we expect the RBA to deliver another 25bps rate increase tomorrow, as well as outlining the arguments in favour of faster moves. - Australia’s interest rate structure is predominantly floating rate, rather than fixed rate. This allows the RBA to move rates more frequently at smaller increments.

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Image courtesy of "The Conversation AU"

Memo RBA: we ought to live with inflation, more of it (The Conversation AU)

Later today, everyone expects the Reserve Bank board will push up its cash interest rate for the second consecutive month. Why? According to the board's ...

But the nail is hard to hit. We’ve seen this “zero lower bound” operating in Australia and elsewhere for years now. In the 1990s, the main argument for a low target rate of inflation was the need to break expectations created by decades of high inflation. The correct response to the huge expansion in the amount of money in the economy during the crisis is to accept a once-off increase in prices and wages, as well as incomes indexed to wages and prices, such as pensions. The result is that wages, as measured by the Bureau of Statistics wage price index, grew by only 2.4% in the year to March, well behind inflation of 5.1%. Once the current spike in inflation is over, we need to reconsider both the target range and the whole idea of inflation targeting.

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Image courtesy of "Sky News Australia"

Chalmers predicts 'difficult day' amid expected cash rate increase (Sky News Australia)

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared Tuesday will be a “difficult day” for families and homeowners with the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to raise ...

The increases are anticipated to continue until it reaches 2.5 per cent. After the last RBA meeting where the cash rate was raised to 0.35 per cent the board judged it was the “right time” to begin “withdrawing some of the extraordinary monetary support” implemented during the pandemic. New to Flash? Try 1 month free. Stream Sky News live & on demand with Flash. 25+ news channels in 1 place. The RBA has indicated neutral rates are between two and three per cent which is more than 2.5 per cent higher than the current cash rate so Mr Phillips believes the RBA will continue to raise interest rates until those levels are reached. The RBA is widely expected to raise the cash rate by as much as half a per cent at the monthly board meeting to address inflation.

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Image courtesy of "MacroBusiness"

Lunatic RBA smashes Aussie services recovery (MacroBusiness)

Well done, RBA. There are no broad wage pressures at all but the RBA has snuffed out the terrible threat of them! Bring on the RBA inquiry.

To add, the mistake of the RBA (in my view) was dropping IR to record lows (0.1%) and offering TFF before seeing the impact of the largest govt cash splash in history and govt forced bank relief on repayments. When it comes to those who have chosen to enter into large debt contracts that have variable interest rates it is hard to understand why there should be any particular concern. What eventuated was fat and happy punters with pockets full of cash sitting at home avoiding the bat sniffles. RBA is the wrong entity to solve these problems but appears to be acting because no other clown is. You don’t fix lunacy by doing more of the same. Are we wanting to control inflation and exploding asset prices or not.

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Image courtesy of "SBS"

Australian homeowners facing 'difficult day' with RBA rate rise ... (SBS)

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to lift its cash rate for the second month in a row on Tuesday, which will mean higher repayments for most ...

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise the cash rate for the second month in a row, which would see interest rates for borrowers increase. The potential for higher wage growth, as the unemployment rate tumbles to its lowest level in nearly 50 years, has been a key focus of the central bank for some time. "The impact of a rate rise on an average mortgage of $330,000, if it's a quarter of a per cent, that's about $43 a month, so people will have to find that. Mr Chalmers said any increase to the cash rate will be a hit to those already struggling with the rising cost of living. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned it will be "a difficult day" for mortgage holders and home buyers, with another increase in the cash rate expected after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its monthly board meeting. - The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to make an announcement on the official cash rate on Tuesday.

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Image courtesy of "ABC News"

ASX in the red ahead of expected RBA rate rise, while Tesla founder ... (ABC News)

The ASX is in the red as investors await another interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is threatening to abandon his $61 billion ...

In London, the FTSE 100 index rose 1 per cent to 7,608, the CAC 40 in Paris also added 1 per cent to 4,988, and the DAX in Germany gained 1.3 per cent to 14,654. The Dow Jones index rose 16 points or 0.05 per cent to 32,916, the S&P 500 rose 0.3 per cent to 4,121, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4 per cent to 12,061. "Twitter has and will continue to cooperatively share information with (Mr) Musk to consummate the transaction in accordance with the terms of the major agreement," the company said in a statement. Twitter shares fell 1.5 per cent on the news to $US39.56. Last month, Mr Musk tweeted that the deal was "temporarily on hold" and said he would not move forward with the offer until the company showed proof that spam bots account for fewer than 5 per cent of its users. The salvo has prompted speculation that Mr Musk's deal to buy Twitter is falling apart as it is not the first time that the eccentric billionaire has publicly suggested his purchase of Twitter may not happen. Twitter said that it planned to enforce the completion of the deal on agreed terms. In the letter, a lawyer for Mr Musk called it a "clear material breach" of the terms of their merger agreement, and said he reserved all rights to terminate his takeover bid. Mr Musk said he needs the data to conduct his own analysis of Twitter users because he did not believe the company's "lax testing methodologies." At 12pm AEST, the All Ordinaries index was down 0.8 per cent to 7,373, while the ASX 200 had also lost 0.8 per cent to 7,149 with 10 out of the 11 industry sectors in the red. The RBA is tipped to raise rates again by 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent, which would lift repayments on a $750,000 mortgage by $99 a month according to RateCity. - The Dow Jones index rose 0.05pc to 32,916, the S&P 500 rose 0.3pc to 4,121, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4pc to 12,061

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Image courtesy of "ABC News"

Interest rate decision live updates: Reserve Bank expected to lift ... (ABC News)

Australians have higher interest rates as the Reserve Bank lifts the cash rate to rein in inflation. Follow live.

We do still have COVID absenteeism. "We do have labour shortages. That is a business-as-usual increment. That is an extra $1300 per month. That person will have to pay an extra $885 per month. This is a very important part of the context, having had rates close to zero, down to 0.1 per cent. That stimulus has been withdrawn. We do have some things going for us in the labour market and in terms of relatively strong household demand. Rising interest rates and falling real wages as well. For an average new mortgage, it's almost twice that, at about $157 a month. They certainly don't directly benifit the mortgage holder.-Lance By Shiloh Payne

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Image courtesy of "Reserve Bank of Australia"

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision ... (Reserve Bank of Australia)

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 85 basis points. It also increased the interest rate on ...

The Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time. The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead. Employment has grown significantly and the unemployment rate is 3.9 per cent, which is the lowest rate in almost 50 years. The Australian economy is resilient, growing by 0.8 per cent in the March quarter and 3.3 per cent over the year. As the global supply-side problems are resolved and commodity prices stabilise, even if at a high level, inflation is expected to moderate. Higher prices for electricity and gas and recent increases in petrol prices mean that, in the near term, inflation is likely to be higher than was expected a month ago.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Reserve Bank hikes official interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.85 ... (The Guardian)

Decision exceeds predictions from economists amid pressure on households and businesses from rising inflation.

“These are the same figures it relied on to raise interest rates by a quarter of a per cent in May, and will be the same figures it relies on at its July meeting,” Ord said. “We have an incredibly difficult challenge of combinations,” he said after the RBA move, adding a dig at the previous government. “The bold move should reverberate for some time.” “Inflation in Australia has increased significantly,” said the RBA governor, Philip Lowe, in a statement. Power price increases of 10% or more will kick for many housesholds and businesses from 1 July, a rise that will have knock-on effects. “Inflation is expected to increase further, but then decline back towards the 2% to 3% range next year,” Lowe said.

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Image courtesy of "The Adviser"

RBA makes June rate decision (The Adviser)

The Reserve Bank has set the cash rate for June, as inflation continues to escalate. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to increase the cash ...

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to increase the cash rate by 50 bps, from 0.35 per cent to 0.85 per... The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to increase the cash rate by 50 bps, from 0.35 per cent to 0.85 per cent. “Banks and lenders are not obliged to follow the cash rate set by the RBA and when there have been rate reductions in the part the banks haven’t always passed them on in full,” Mr Bednar said. “Housing price growth has slowed significantly, with annual price growth falling from 24 per cent six months ago to only 14 per cent in the year to May,” Mr Ryan said. The move has followed its 25-bp increase in May, when the RBA lifted the rate for the first time in more than a decade, up from its historic low of 0.1 per cent. The Reserve Bank has set the cash rate for June, following on from its increase last month

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Image courtesy of "ABC News"

Interest rate decision live updates: RBA raises official cash rate to ... (ABC News)

The Reserve Bank announces a cash rate rise of half a percentage point. Follow live.

"We do have labour shortages. That is a business-as-usual increment. That is an extra $1300 per month. That person will have to pay an extra $885 per month. This is a very important part of the context, having had rates close to zero, down to 0.1 per cent. That stimulus has been withdrawn. We do have some things going for us in the labour market and in terms of relatively strong household demand. Rising interest rates and falling real wages as well. For an average new mortgage, it's almost twice that, at about $157 a month. They certainly don't directly benifit the mortgage holder.-Lance "We have high and rising inflation, rising interest rates, falling real wages and our ability to deal with some of these challenges is constrained by the fact that the budget is absolutely heaving with the trillion dollars of Liberal debt. "It is a really difficult day.

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Image courtesy of "The Australian Financial Review"

ASX to slip, RBA decision ahead, Economists divided (The Australian Financial Review)

RBA executes first back-to-back interest-rate increase in 12 years, biggest jump since February 2000, warns on global outlook, Ukraine, energy prices, ...

Emma Rapaport This means their repayments will now rise by $197 in total (May and June hikes combined). Emma Rapaport Emma Rapaport Emma Rapaport Emma Rapaport “What we do know though is that the ability of households and businesses to weather the inflationary storm declines the longer it lasts. “Compounding matters, markets are pricing in a cash rate of 2.7 per cent by the end of the year. “Whether these rate hikes will work is the trillion-dollar question. Emma Rapaport “It is now acting out of clear alarm and is not frightened to show its alarm. Emma Rapaport

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Image courtesy of "The Sydney Morning Herald"

Biggest one-month lift in interest rates for 22 years as RBA moves to ... (The Sydney Morning Herald)

RBA governor Philip Lowe announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the cash rate to a higher than expected 0.85 per cent.

“Consumers are especially pessimistic about the current economic outlook and their current financial circumstances,” he said. “While inflation is lower than in most other advanced economies, it is higher than earlier expected,” he said. There was a 4.7 per cent decline in whether it was a good time to buy a major household item after a jump of 10.1 per cent in the previous two weeks. That was the first time the bank had intervened during an election campaign since 2007, but the RBA had flagged it was the start of a series of rises as it returns rates to a “more normal” level. It’s the biggest one-month increase in the official cash rate since February 2000 and only the second rise since November 2010, after the bank last month lifted the cash rate from a record-low 0.1 per cent to 0.35 per cent in the lead-up to the federal election. The Reserve Bank has made the biggest one-month increase in official interest rates in more than two decades in a bid to address higher than expected inflation.

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Image courtesy of "The Australian Financial Review"

RBA surprises with outsize jump in cash rate to 0.85pc (The Australian Financial Review)

The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate from 0.35 per cent to a surprise 0.85 per cent in a move that blindsided most economists.

Goldman Sachs and BofA expect the RBA to follow-up with another 5 basis point rise in July. As such, we are comfortable with our above-consensus forecast that rates will peak at 3 per cent by early 2023.” The Australian dollar jumped nearly half a US cent to US72.33¢. EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy said the double-rate rise was a sign the RBA was “not comfortable” with low interest rates in an economy running at capacity, and was willing to let some households struggle to stop inflation getting away from it as it had in other parts of the world. “Higher prices for electricity and gas and recent increases in petrol prices mean that, in the near term, inflation is likely to be higher than was expected a month ago [in the bank’s Statement on Monetary Policy].” RBA governor Philip Lowe said the double “business as usual” 50 basis point increase was needed due to the “resilience” of the local economy and growing inflation from spiking energy prices.

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Image courtesy of "Proactive Investors Australia"

RBA hikes cash rate by 50 basis points as market gets all broken up ... (Proactive Investors Australia)

Inflation in Australia has increased significantly. While inflation is lower than in most other advanced economies, it is higher than...

“Compounding matters, markets are pricing in a cash rate of 2.7% by the end of the year. Borrowers should be contacting their lenders to consider their options and find the right solution for their personal situation." Here’s a look at the better performers. “Yet despite this, the USD, GBP, CAD and NZD retain a positive yield differential over the Aussie. And they have stopped short of assuring they’ll continue to hike in 50-bps increments in their statement. Fixed rates that were once attractive at the start of the year no longer seem like viable options moving forward. “Whether these rate hikes will work is the trillion-dollar question. And as they themselves stated the neutral rate is estimated to be between 2-3%, it still leaves room for several more hikes on the table.” “Moving from quarterly to monthly reporting may require an increase in funding for the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which collects CPI data. The board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time." “Inflation is expected to increase further, but then decline back towards the 2-3 per cent range next year. “Because Australia only reports CPI data quarterly, we have a limited understanding of the impact May’s interest rate rise had on inflation. “We’re in a high inflation environment; we need to be agile.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

Treasurer warns of 'severity and magnitude of inflation challenge ... (The Guardian)

Jim Chalmers responds to Reserve Bank decision to lift cash rate 50 basis points as Anthony Albanese declines to comment during Indonesia trip.

“This is not the challenge that we have in the economy. The submission noted “highly unusual and challenging economic conditions” in Australia and the 5.1% rate of inflation. It will take more than two and a half weeks to turn around.” “We need to be honest and upfront with the Australian people about the nature, the severity, the magnitude of this inflation challenge that we confront,” Chalmers said. “It is within our grasp, it is within our reach to strengthen our economy and have a better future, but first we need to navigate together this high and rising inflation and the interest rate rises that accompany it.” “The truth is that we have an incredibly difficult combination of challenges,” Chalmers said.

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