Newspoll

Post-budget polls show a small gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred figures, but still point to a Labor victory is replicated on election day.

In Victoria, Labor led by 58-42, a swing of 5% to Labor. In WA, Labor led by 53-47, a swing of about 8.5%. In SA, Labor led by 59-41, a swing of 8%. In the same post, The Poll Bludger gave his analysis of the two party vote and swings from the 2019 election for the polls of nine federal seats I discussed on March 24. Queensland was the pro-Coalition exception, with the Coalition ahead by 54-46, though that’s still a swing of 4.5% to Labor. Labor had a 55-45 lead among both men and women, and led among all income groups. A pre-budget Morgan poll, conducted March 21-27 from a sample of 1,404, gave Labor a 55.5-44.5 lead, a 2.5 point gain for the Coalition since the March 14-20 poll. It’s the first time Labor won the two party since 2006, even though they formed government after the 2010 and 2014 elections. In NSW, Labor led by 54-46, a swing of about 6% to Labor since the 2019 election. After the poll failure at that election, it was booted and replaced by Resolve. But Ipsos will conduct polls for The Financial Review in the lead-up to this election. This poll was conducted March 30 to April 2 from a sample of 2,563. 54% were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (down one), and 42% were satisfied (up one), for a net approval of -12, up two points. With a minimum 33-day campaign period, the election must be called in the next two weeks. The polls overall still show a large Labor lead, but Newspoll gives the Coalition some hope. Before the 2019 election, Ipsos conducted monthly federal polls for Nine newspapers.